Nigeria’s Crude Production Peaked at 554.4mb in 2025 — NUPRC
Nigeria’s oil and gas sector recorded a notable performance in 2025, with the country’s total crude oil and condensate production reaching approximately 554.4 million barrels, according to official data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The figures reflect a year of gradual recovery for Africa’s largest oil producer amid regulatory reforms, improved security in oil-producing regions, and sustained efforts to stabilise output in line with global market realities.
The production data, contained in a detailed NUPRC report titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025”, provides a month-by-month breakdown of Nigeria’s oil output and offers insight into how the country navigated both domestic and international pressures in the upstream petroleum sector.
Steady Output Despite Market Volatility
According to the NUPRC document, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil and condensate production stood at 1.63 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025.
This translated to an average monthly output of about 46.22 million barrels, culminating in the annual total of 554.4 million barrels.
In December 2025, production slightly moderated to 1.54mb/d, reflecting a seasonal slowdown and the impact of routine operational challenges.
However, regulators noted that output levels remained relatively stable compared to previous years marked by prolonged disruptions and underperformance.
The report further disclosed that crude oil alone accounted for an average of 1.42mb/d, representing 95 per cent of Nigeria’s 1.5mb/d production quota approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
This near-compliance with the OPEC ceiling was seen as a significant improvement, underscoring Nigeria’s renewed commitment to production discipline and market coordination.
A closer look at the monthly figures shows that Nigeria began the year on a strong footing. Crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.73mb/d in both January and February, before moderating slightly to 1.69mb/d in March and 1.68mb/d in April.
Production eased further in the middle of the year, averaging 1.65mb/d in May and 1.69mb/d in June, before rebounding to 1.71mb/d in July. August recorded 1.63mb/d, while output dipped to 1.58mb/d in September.
The final quarter of the year saw relatively stable figures, with 1.59mb/d recorded in October and November, before closing at 1.54mb/d in December.
On crude oil output specifically, January recorded 1.53mb/d, followed by 1.46mb/d in February and 1.40mb/d in March. Production climbed to 1.48mb/d in April and remained within the 1.45–1.50mb/d range for most of the year, closing December at 1.42mb/d.
Oil Prices and Revenue Implications
Beyond production volumes, the NUPRC report highlighted crude oil price movements in 2025, which played a critical role in shaping government revenue and foreign exchange inflows.
Brent crude, Nigeria’s major benchmark, opened the year at a high of $79 per barrel, but gradually softened as global economic uncertainties weighed on demand.
By the end of 2025, Brent crude had declined to a low of $63 per barrel, with the average oil price for the year settling at $71 per barrel.
While the price moderation reduced windfall earnings, industry analysts say the relative price stability provided a predictable environment for fiscal planning and investment decisions.
Improved Security Boosts Production
The NUPRC attributed part of the production gains to the reopening of previously shut-in oil wells and a relatively peaceful operating environment in the Niger Delta for much of the year.
Enhanced collaboration between security agencies, host communities, and operators helped curb large-scale vandalism and crude oil theft that had plagued the sector in earlier years.
However, the commission acknowledged that production was not entirely disruption-free. Periodic shutdowns occurred due to routine maintenance, while unforeseen incidents — including an explosion on the Escravos–Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) — temporarily constrained output during the year.
Industry observers note that the 2025 performance reflects the gradual impact of regulatory reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The NUPRC’s strengthened oversight, combined with clearer fiscal terms and improved data transparency, has helped restore investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
With Nigeria meeting 95 per cent of its OPEC quota in December, analysts believe the country is better positioned to negotiate future production targets and attract new investments, particularly in deep offshore and marginal field developments.
Looking ahead, stakeholders say sustaining output above 1.6mb/d will depend on continued security improvements, timely infrastructure maintenance, and the acceleration of new field developments.
As global energy markets transition amid climate concerns and shifting demand patterns, Nigeria’s ability to maximise value from its hydrocarbon resources remains a key policy priority.
For now, the NUPRC data confirms that Nigeria’s crude production peaked at 554.4mb in 2025, marking a year of relative stability and cautious optimism for the nation’s oil-dependent economy.
