Uncertainty is gripping Iran after Trump’s midterm defeat in the United States, with residents divided over whether the Republican Party’s electoral losses could reduce the possibility of another full-scale war or create fresh dangers for the country.
While supporters of Iran’s government have celebrated the Republican setback, many ordinary citizens remain anxious about worsening economic conditions, possible military escalation and the continued repression of dissent at home.
Just hours after the US midterm results dealt a major blow to Trump’s Republican Party, pro-government crowds gathered at Tehran’s Enghelab Square and set fire to a giant banner featuring the US president, Vice-President JD Vance, American envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iranian officials subsequently issued statements celebrating the Republican losses, portraying the outcome as a rejection of Trump’s military campaign against their country.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei, was killed during strikes in February, declared: “The process of the US’s collapse has accelerated.”
Iranian state television also broadcast footage of a mock hanging in Tehran’s Tajrish Square, featuring an actor wearing a Donald Trump mask and an orange prison uniform.
However, the celebrations among government supporters contrast sharply with the apprehension expressed by ordinary Iranians, many of whom are uncertain about what the American political developments mean for their country’s future.
Iranians uncertain about another US-Israel war
For some residents, the possibility of another full-scale conflict remains a major concern, particularly because Trump’s defeat in the midterms does not necessarily mean he will abandon his foreign policy approach towards Iran.
Mehnaz, a journalist based in Tehran, described the atmosphere as deeply unsettling, saying people were struggling to understand what might happen next.
“I am really fearful. Of what? I still don’t know. It’s a weird feeling,” she said.
She explained that some Iranians had been looking towards the United States and Israel in the hope that external military pressure could bring political change inside Iran.
“Frankly, it’s a truly strange scenario here. People have set their sights on the US and Israel, hoping that this will bring change. I found that very strange and still do.”
According to Mehnaz, some people believe Trump’s weakened political position following the midterm elections could make him more willing to continue military operations.
“Many think since this is Trump’s second term, and he therefore doesn’t need to be re-elected, he might continue the war,” she said.
However, she stressed that the situation inside Iran was already deteriorating, with executions continuing regardless of whether the country faced another military confrontation.
“But what worries me is that the [Iranian] regime has been executing people daily and this is only getting worse, with or without war.”
Iran’s economic difficulties deepen public anxiety
Beyond the possibility of renewed conflict, the worsening economic situation is contributing to the uncertainty experienced by Iranian households.
Alborz, a 36-year-old writer living in Tehran, said ordinary commercial activities continued, but the appearance of normality concealed the financial difficulties facing residents.
He explained that people still visited shops to browse clothing and other goods, although actual purchases had become increasingly uncommon.
“In the shops, people can still be seen browsing for clothes and other goods, just as before. Yet actual purchases have become rare, and a single T-shirt now costs what a full suit might have set you back a year ago,” he said.
The rising cost of everyday necessities has forced people to reconsider their spending and prepare for further disruptions.
Alborz also described conversations among residents about alternative heating arrangements, suggesting that some were preparing for the possibility of damage to the country’s infrastructure.
“Amid the banter and everyday chatter, you overhear passersby debating whether a kerosene heater is better than a wood-burning one, readying themselves, in their own way, for the possibility that the infrastructure may one day be destroyed.”
He added: “It is a resilience born of compulsion. There is nothing noble in it.”
Unlike Mehnaz and others who fear another military confrontation, Alborz believes the likelihood of renewed full-scale war may have decreased following the American election results.
“There’s a general feeling that with what happened in the US election and with Israel, the likelihood of a full-scale war resuming has decreased. Still, no one is certain.”
His assessment reflects the conflicting expectations among Iranians, with some anticipating further military escalation while others believe the political developments in Washington could reduce the immediate danger.
Executions and repression remain major concerns
Despite the different opinions about the possibility of another war, a common concern among people interviewed is that government repression will continue irrespective of developments in the United States.
According to the Oslo-based non-governmental organisation Iran Human Rights, Iranian authorities have executed at least 696 people this year.
The reported figure has intensified concerns among human rights advocates and residents who fear that the authorities could continue targeting opponents without significant international consequences.
Noor, a 24-year-old resident of Karaj, said her personal experience had reinforced her belief that the government’s security machinery would remain active regardless of the country’s military situation.
She spent three weeks in prison after participating in protests in January and said the authorities had developed a system of repression capable of operating during both war and peacetime.
“They arrested me during the war, so their repression mechanism is like a well-oiled machine which won’t stop working whether it’s under clouds or bombs.”
Asked about her expectations following Trump’s midterm defeat, Noor said uncertainty had become an unavoidable part of everyday life.
“If someone tells you inside the country what they predict will happen next, they are lying. No one, absolutely no one, knows what will happen. We have been preparing for the worst all year.”
She nevertheless expressed certainty about one aspect of Iran’s political future.
“But I know what won’t happen. This repression will not end,” she said.
Her comments capture the fears of residents who believe that changes in American political circumstances may not necessarily improve conditions inside Iran.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard demonstrates its resilience
Another issue emerging from the accounts of residents is the perceived strength of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its organisational capabilities and loyalty among personnel.
Moein, a medic in central Iran, argued that the United States and Western governments had underestimated the institution’s ability to withstand pressure and maintain its position.
He said his own understanding of the Revolutionary Guard had changed after observing its performance during the country’s confrontation with powerful international opponents.
“Even I underestimated how powerful and strategically well placed the IRGC is,” he said.
Moein explained that he had previously viewed Iran’s political system as dominated by ageing religious leaders and military officials disconnected from developments in the country.
“I used to think, or at least like to think of the whole system as fossilised mullahs and corrupt, out-of-touch military men. But it’s clear to me now that they’re somewhat competent. And still loyal, despite how corrupt they can be.”
His assessment reflects the contradiction he sees in an institution capable of sustaining decades of sanctions and confronting powerful military opponents while maintaining coercive measures against its own population.
He described the situation as particularly disturbing because of the reported violence against young protesters.
“A state capable of enduring decades of sanctions and confronting the world’s most powerful military, yet willing to turn its coercive machinery against its own population.”
He added: “It’s a shame, really. For them to fight back against the sole superpower of the world and last half a century under sanctions, only to kill young girls in the streets.”
Moein also expressed diminishing confidence in European leaders’ willingness or ability to respond effectively to continuing repression in Iran.
Government supporters celebrate Trump’s political setback
While critics of the Iranian government remain apprehensive, supporters of the authorities have interpreted the Republican defeat as an opportunity for the country’s leadership.
Mehnaz said the celebrations organised by pro-government crowds had become increasingly provocative.
She suggested that members of the Revolutionary Guard viewed the American election outcome as a possible opportunity to strengthen their position and secure the government’s survival.
“And why won’t they celebrate? They [IRGC] have just found a hope for survival,” she said.
The contrasting reactions demonstrate the divisions within Iranian society, where the same international political development can be interpreted as either an opportunity or another source of uncertainty.
For government supporters, Trump’s electoral setback represents a challenge to the American administration that has pursued military pressure against Iran.
For many opponents of the authorities, however, the immediate concern remains whether their own government will continue executions, arrests and restrictions on political dissent.
Iran faces an uncertain political and security future
The American midterm elections have introduced another layer of uncertainty into an already difficult situation for Iran.
Although Trump’s Republican Party suffered a major electoral defeat, the results do not automatically determine the direction of American policy towards Tehran or establish whether another military confrontation will occur.
Similarly, the celebrations organised by Iranian government supporters have not removed the economic difficulties and domestic political tensions confronting ordinary residents.
The accounts from Tehran and other parts of the country reveal a population divided over the likelihood of renewed war but united by concerns about the continuation of repression.
For some, the possibility of military escalation remains frightening. Others believe the recent political developments could reduce the immediate threat of another full-scale conflict.
Nevertheless, Iran after Trump’s midterm defeat remains a period of considerable uncertainty, with residents preparing for possible economic disruption, political repression and further confrontation.
As Noor’s account suggests, many Iranians are unwilling to assume that developments abroad will bring meaningful changes to their lives at home.
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