South Sudan full-scale war risk has sharply increased, the United Nations warned, citing “escalating atrocity risks”, collapsing political safeguards, and widening civilian suffering across the fragile nation.
A new report released in Geneva by the United Nations investigative body describes a country “on the brink”, with violence spreading and accountability mechanisms effectively paralysed nationwide.
Investigators found civilians enduring killings, “systematic” sexual violence, arbitrary detention, forced displacement, and deprivation, all occurring amid what the report calls a deepening humanitarian emergency.
The findings were published by the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, following a year-long investigation drawing on survivor testimony and field documentation.
The commission warned that “urgent preventive action” is now imperative, stating that entrenched impunity and political collapse could push the country back into catastrophic conflict.
According to the report, regional and international actors must apply diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and strictly enforce the United Nations arms embargo without further delay.
“Preventing further mass atrocity crimes, institutional collapse, and the destruction of South Sudan’s fragile transition requires urgent coordinated re-engagement,” the commission stated.
Investigators blamed political and military elites for deliberately eroding power-sharing arrangements and undermining the peace framework established after years of civil war.
The report highlighted attempts to alter the terms of the 2018 peace agreement, warning these actions have placed the fragile settlement under “major strain”.
Central to the renewed instability is the arrest and removal of First Vice President Riek Machar, whose detention deeply weakened core power-sharing guarantees.
Machar’s prosecution on charges including murder, treason, and crimes against humanity “triggered political uncertainty and armed clashes on a scale not witnessed for a decade”.
The commission said Machar’s removal effectively dismantled safeguards designed to prevent renewed conflict between rival factions within the transitional government.
Civil war originally erupted in 2013 after President Salva Kiir dismissed Machar, accusing him of plotting a coup.
That conflict, waged largely along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people before a fragile calm was restored through the 2018 peace agreement.
The new report warns that recent fighting mirrors early warning signs seen before the last civil war spiralled out of control.
Military operations have intensified in recent months, with investigators documenting a “dangerous shift in tactics”, including air strikes near civilian-populated areas.
Particular concern was raised over operations in Jonglei State, a strategic region long affected by intercommunal and political violence.
Beginning in December, opposition forces seized multiple government outposts, reversing territorial control and escalating armed confrontations across the state.
Following those losses, government forces announced a major offensive, ordering civilians and aid agencies to evacuate contested zones.
The International Crisis Group said the announcement demonstrated that the country had effectively “returned to war”.
The commission also raised alarm over the deployment of foreign forces, particularly from neighbouring Uganda, a guarantor of the peace agreement.
According to the report, Ugandan involvement “materially strengthened” government forces and raised “credible concerns” of arms embargo violations.
Joint aerial bombardments by Ugandan and South Sudanese forces reportedly targeted civilian areas, “predominantly affecting Nuer communities” in opposition-held zones.
Investigators said such actions significantly increased the risk of mass atrocities and ethnic-based reprisals.
Conflict-related sexual violence remains a “defining and persistent feature” of the crisis, the report found, affecting women and girls across multiple regions.
Survivor testimonies documented “widespread and systematic patterns of rape” perpetrated by government forces, opposition fighters, and allied armed groups.
The threat of sexual violence was described as a “strategic instrument of conflict” used to terrorise civilians, force displacement, and fracture social cohesion.
Most women and girls now live “at constant risk”, with accountability for perpetrators described as virtually nonexistent.
The commission said senior commanders and political actors are “rarely held accountable” for crimes committed by forces under their effective control.
The report also documented a sharp deterioration in civic space, with journalists, activists, and opposition figures facing harassment, surveillance, and arbitrary detention.
Such repression undermines inclusive political participation and erodes prospects for long-term stability, the commission warned.
Authorities were urged to immediately release those arbitrarily detained and guarantee freedoms of expression, assembly, and association.
The commission again called for the long-delayed establishment of transitional justice mechanisms to investigate war crimes committed since 2013.
The humanitarian toll continues to rise, with the United Nations estimating 280,000 people displaced since late December alone.
More than 235,000 of those displaced are in Jonglei, where violence and air attacks have devastated communities.
The capital, Juba, has seen growing insecurity as civilians flee rural fighting toward already overstretched urban areas.
The UNICEF warned that over 450,000 children now face acute malnutrition due to disrupted medical services.
Across South Sudan, nearly 10 million people require life-saving humanitarian assistance, according to UN agencies.
Aid operations have been crippled by looting, attacks, and deliberate obstruction by armed actors on all sides.
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Observers said both government and opposition forces have blocked assistance to areas believed to support their rivals.
The commission concluded that civilians continue to bear the “overwhelming human brunt” of escalating conflict and political failure.
Displacement rose nearly 40 percent last year to 3.2 million people, while declining international assistance disproportionately affects women and children.
Without urgent action, the report warned, South Sudan faces a catastrophic slide toward renewed nationwide war.
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