The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election has delivered a Labour win. Bev Craig defeated Reform UK’s Sian Astley in the second round to succeed Andy Burnham. Turnout hit a historic low across the region.
Only one in four of the 2 million eligible voters cast ballots. Ms Craig won 47.15 per cent in round one, short of 50 per cent needed under Supplementary Vote. Astley finished on 20.99 per cent.
HOW THE GREATER MANCHESTER MAYORAL BY-ELECTION PLAYED OUT
The count went to a second round for the first time. Ms Craig secured 309,525 first and second preference votes. Ms Astley received 157,178 votes in the final tally.
“I will defend this city region with every bone in my body and I will fight for a better life for all of us,” Ms Craig told supporters at Co-op Live arena.
The result marks the first electoral test of Mr Burnham’s premiership. He had won three mayoral elections with over 60 per cent before returning to Westminster.
Geraldine Coggins of the Greens took 64,968 votes. Conservative Phil Eckersley received 41,021. Liberal Democrat Richard Kilpatrick got 14,702. Restore Britain’s Marlon West won 46,289.
‘BURNHAM BOUNCE’ LIFTS LABOUR FORTUNES
Ms Craig has been described as Mr Burnham’s protege. She led Manchester City Council since 2021 and worked with him on the Combined Authority economy portfolio.
“I never believed as a girl growing up on a council estate that one day I would have a chance to stand for the place that I love,” she said after winning.
Labour is enjoying a “Burnham bounce” nationally. His move to Downing Street has changed the party’s polling fortunes in recent weeks across key regions.
The victory was expected. Polls had Ms Craig ahead comfortably. Bookmakers had earlier made Reform favourites after strong local election results in Wigan.
Reform won 24 of 25 seats in Wigan in May. But that momentum did not transfer to the mayoral race. This is their third loss in Greater Manchester this year.
The Greens also underperformed. They had won Gorton and Denton in February. Campaigns suggested a two-horse race with Reform, but they missed the second round.
Turnout dropped below 2017’s 28.9 per cent. Voter fatigue is cited as a factor. This was the third poll in 2026 for parts of Greater Manchester.
Verification took more than 13 hours. The result was declared late at Co-op Live. Officials blamed high ballot numbers and complex second preferences.
Mr Burnham’s name still carried weight. In Makerfield earlier this year, his endorsement helped Labour beat Reform. That pattern repeated in his former mayoral seat.
The result came as the prime minister announced new fiscal powers. English mayors will keep a share of taxes collected in their areas under new plans.
The policy aims to incentivise regional growth. It allows leaders to retain income tax and business rates locally. Ms Craig will have more power than Burnham had.
“I’ve long argued, as did Andy before he became prime minister, that Greater Manchester should have more power and more control,” Ms Craig said.
“So it’s absolutely fantastic that in two weeks since becoming prime minister, he’s coming good on his long-standing beliefs around power and control,” she added.
She highlighted skills and support for young people. The new powers from 16 upwards will make an “incredible difference” in Greater Manchester, she stated.
Labour allies had warned losing Greater Manchester would damage the party. Sir Keir Starmer’s team previously urged Burnham to stay as mayor to prevent that.
The by-election proves Labour can hold key city regions. Even with low turnout, the party’s base turned out to back Burnham’s chosen successor.
Reform will be disappointed. Nigel Farage’s party targeted the seat after local gains. But they could not break through in a mayoral contest.
The Greens targeted second place. Significant gains in Manchester council elections in May raised expectations. Those did not translate to the mayoral vote.
The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives finished well back. Both struggled for visibility in a campaign dominated by Labour and Reform narratives.
Independent candidate Marcus Farmer received 2,969 votes. Smaller parties failed to influence the outcome in a contest focused on the top two.
Greater Manchester remains Labour heartland. The region has backed the party in every mayoral election since the role was created in 2017.
Ms Craig takes over one of the most powerful jobs outside Westminster. She inherits Burnham’s transport, housing and policing responsibilities across ten boroughs.
Her immediate challenge is turnout. Engaging the 75 per cent who stayed home will define her first term and legitimacy in the role.
The “Burnham bounce” may not last. National polls can shift quickly. But for now Labour is capitalising on having a former mayor in Number 10.
Fiscal devolution gives Ms Craig new tools. Keeping local tax revenue could fund skills, infrastructure and business support without waiting on Westminster.
Critics warn of postcode inequality. If richer areas keep more tax, poorer regions may fall further behind without equalisation measures from government.
Supporters argue it rewards growth. Mayors who attract investment should benefit directly. That logic drove Burnham’s campaign for the policy for years.
The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election result strengthens Burnham’s legacy. He leaves City Hall with Labour still in control and new powers secured.
Ms Craig begins work immediately. She pledged to focus on jobs, housing and public services in her victory speech to thousands at the arena.
The low turnout will trouble all parties. Democratic engagement in regional government remains a challenge despite the high profile of the mayoralty.
Reform will regroup ahead of 2027. They remain competitive in local elections but have not cracked mayoral races in urban Labour strongholds.
For Labour, it is relief and momentum. Winning Burnham’s seat avoids embarrassment and proves the party can win even during a transition in leadership.
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The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election closes a political chapter. Burnham moves to national office. Craig now carries his agenda forward in the north.
