Despite growing domestic refining capacity, petrol tops Nigeria’s imports as the country continues to rely heavily on foreign supplies to meet its daily energy needs.
Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that between October 2024 and October 2025, Nigerians consumed about 613.6 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) — with imports accounting for nearly two-thirds of that volume.
According to the NMDPRA, 377.54 million litres of petrol were imported into the country within the one-year period, while 236.08 million litres came from local refineries, led by the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The figures underscore Nigeria’s persistent dependence on external sources for refined fuel, even as domestic capacity continues to expand.
Petrol Tops Nigeria’s Imports Despite Refinery Growth
The data indicates that petrol tops Nigeria’s imports by a margin of 63 per cent, while domestic refining contributed only 37 per cent.
However, this marks a notable improvement compared to previous years when the country imported nearly all of its fuel needs due to the non-functional state of its public refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
The report revealed a positive trend in local refining output, which rose from 9.62 million litres per day in October 2024 to 18.93 million litres per day by October 2025 — representing an almost 100 per cent increase.
During the same period, import volumes fell sharply from 46.38 million litres per day to 15.11 million litres per day, a decline of about 67 per cent.
The NMDPRA’s monthly breakdown showed steady declines in petrol importation, with the lowest import figure of 15.11 million litres recorded in early October 2025.
This coincided with a period of improved performance from local producers, particularly the Dangote Refinery, which has been instrumental in narrowing the supply gap.
Dangote Refinery’s Impact on Fuel Supply
Industry analysts credit the Dangote Refinery for transforming Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape within a short time.
Since ramping up operations in early 2025, the facility has contributed between 15 and 20 million litres of PMS daily, helping to stabilise domestic supply and reduce foreign exchange pressure.
Before the refinery’s intervention, Nigeria spent billions of dollars monthly importing refined products, straining foreign reserves and creating frequent fuel shortages.
The refinery’s steady output has now positioned Nigeria for greater energy independence, even though petrol tops Nigeria’s imports for now.
Oil sector analyst and Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, described the shift as a “milestone in Nigeria’s industrial recovery,” but noted that the full benefits would only materialize if local refiners have uninterrupted access to crude oil in naira.
“The Dangote Refinery currently supplies about 40 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption. However, for it to operate optimally, it needs guaranteed access to crude oil in naira.
That is the only way to further reduce import dependency and stabilize pump prices,” Jeremiah said.
Challenges Slowing Down Local Refining
Despite improvements in output, several challenges continue to hinder Nigeria’s path to self-sufficiency.
Experts point to logistical bottlenecks, inconsistent crude allocation, and regulatory hurdles as key barriers.
Although petrol tops Nigeria’s imports, the country’s domestic refining potential remains enormous.
The combined capacity of existing and upcoming refineries — including the Dangote, Waltersmith, and BUA facilities — could exceed national demand if operating at full efficiency.
However, analysts caution that limited access to feedstock, irregular crude supply contracts, and foreign exchange exposure remain major obstacles.
Additionally, the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries are still undergoing rehabilitation, further delaying Nigeria’s transition to full-scale local refining.
Government’s Role and Economic Implications
The Federal Government has maintained that increasing local production is central to its energy policy under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
Officials have repeatedly emphasized that the success of the Dangote Refinery and other indigenous plants will drastically cut fuel import bills, stabilize the naira, and create employment opportunities across the energy value chain.
With petrol topping Nigeria’s imports, the country’s trade deficit has widened, largely due to the high cost of refined fuel imports.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) estimates that refined petroleum products account for over 30 per cent of Nigeria’s total import expenditure, highlighting the urgent need to boost domestic refining.
According to NMDPRA data, total petrol supply averaged 46.6 million litres per day in 2025, with 29.5 million litres from imports and about 17.1 million litres from local production.
These numbers reflect progress, yet they also underline the continuing dependence on international suppliers.
Petrol Tops Nigeria’s Imports: The Road Ahead
While the latest figures reveal a gradual shift towards self-sufficiency, petrol still tops Nigeria’s imports, underscoring the country’s complex energy challenges.
Industry experts believe that with stronger government support, reliable crude allocation, and investment-friendly policies, Nigeria could completely eliminate petrol imports within three years.
Jeremiah added, “Nigeria, as Africa’s largest crude oil producer and home to its biggest refinery, should not be importing 60 per cent of its petrol.
The government and the NUPRC must ensure that all local refiners have full access to crude. That’s the path to cheaper petrol and true energy independence.”
Until then, petrol tops Nigeria’s imports, reminding stakeholders that despite recent gains, the journey toward full domestic fuel sufficiency is far from over.
