NBS Engages Stakeholders Ahead of December Inflation Report Release
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has moved to proactively engage key stakeholders ahead of the highly anticipated release of Nigeria’s December inflation figures, as analysts and market watchers brace for a temporary reversal in the country’s recent disinflationary trend.
The stakeholder engagement, scheduled for Monday, comes amid growing concern that year-end spending pressures and diminishing base-year effects could push inflation higher in December, potentially unsettling markets and policy expectations.
The NBS, as Nigeria’s official data authority, is seeking to manage expectations, improve understanding of the inflation dynamics, and reinforce confidence in the credibility of its data.
Economic analysts note that inflation data remains one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators, particularly in Nigeria’s current environment of fiscal reforms, exchange rate adjustments, and price liberalisation in key sectors such as energy and transportation.
Market Projections Signal Temporary Inflation Uptick
Multiple investment firms and research houses have projected that the December inflation report may interrupt the moderation seen in recent months.
CardinalStone, in its latest macroeconomic outlook, projected headline inflation at 32.07 per cent, citing seasonal consumption patterns and statistical base effects.
While this would represent an increase from previous readings, analysts broadly agree that the spike is likely to be short-lived and may reverse as early as January 2026, provided underlying macroeconomic conditions remain stable.
Coronation Asset Management also forecast a year-end rise in inflation, attributing it largely to base-year effects rather than fresh structural shocks.
According to the firm, festive demand, increased transport activity during the holiday period, and elevated service-sector costs are expected to drive month-on-month inflation higher in December.
“In December, we expect a reversal of the current disinflationary trend, largely reflecting a statistical base-year effect,” Coronation stated.
“Food prices are also likely to remain under pressure due to tighter supplies, insecurity in major food-producing regions, and increased Yuletide consumption.”
Base-Year Effect Dominates Inflation Outlook
AIICO Capital echoed similar sentiments, projecting headline inflation within the range of 31.4 to 32.4 per cent year-on-year.
The firm explained that the expected increase is not necessarily indicative of worsening economic fundamentals but is largely a result of arithmetic effects linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year.
“Our analysis indicates that the base-year effect, combined with festive spending, will likely halt the disinflationary trend in December,” AIICO Capital said.
The firm added that core inflation—excluding volatile agricultural produce—could show a slight month-on-month easing even as year-on-year figures rise sharply.
Interestingly, AIICO Capital pointed to mitigating factors such as naira appreciation at the official foreign exchange window and declining petrol prices in December.
Average petrol prices reportedly fell by nearly 15 per cent following a reduction in gantry prices by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, helping to soften cost pressures in some segments of the economy.
Private Sector Calls for Clear Communication
Ahead of the December inflation report, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has called on policymakers, analysts, and data users to carefully interpret the forthcoming figures.
In a statement circulated to stakeholders, the private-sector think tank warned that misunderstanding the inflation data could heighten uncertainty and undermine confidence in official statistics.
The NESG noted that following the CPI rebasing exercise conducted in early 2025, inflation figures moderated significantly, with November 2025 inflation reported at 14 per cent.
However, it cautioned that December figures could record an “artificial spike” due to base effects linked to the rebasing methodology.
“Such a spike does not reflect a deterioration in underlying economic conditions,” the NESG said. “Rather, it is a consequence of the computational framework used in measuring inflation.
Without proper communication, these outcomes could complicate policy formulation and business decision-making.”
The group stressed that the NBS plays a critical role in ensuring transparency and methodological clarity, particularly during periods of heightened inflation expectations.
NBS Stakeholder Meeting Aims to Build Confidence
The upcoming stakeholder engagement is expected to bring together economists, financial market participants, policymakers, and representatives of the private sector to discuss inflation trends, data interpretation, and methodological considerations surrounding the December inflation report.
According to analysts, such engagements are increasingly important as Nigeria navigates complex reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, and efforts to stabilise food supply chains amid security challenges.
The NBS has previously stated that the rebasing of the CPI—updating the price reference period from 2019 to 2024—was necessary to reflect current consumption patterns and price realities.
The bureau maintained that the exercise provides a more accurate picture of inflation dynamics in the Nigerian economy.
Policy Implications and Investor Sensitivity
The December inflation report is expected to have significant implications for monetary policy, investor sentiment, and household expectations.
Inflation remains a key input into the Central Bank of Nigeria’s interest rate decisions, as well as government fiscal planning.
Analysts say a temporary inflation spike, if well-communicated, may not trigger immediate policy tightening.
However, persistent upward pressure could renew concerns about the sustainability of recent macroeconomic gains.
For businesses and consumers, inflation data also shapes pricing strategies, wage negotiations, and spending decisions. As such, clarity around the drivers of inflation remains critical.
Looking Beyond December
While attention is firmly fixed on the December inflation report, economists emphasise the importance of looking beyond short-term fluctuations.
Structural issues such as food supply constraints, logistics costs, energy pricing, and exchange rate stability will continue to determine Nigeria’s inflation trajectory in the medium term.
By engaging stakeholders ahead of the data release, the NBS appears intent on fostering informed dialogue and preventing misinterpretation of headline figures.
Market participants will now be watching closely to see whether the bureau’s communication strategy succeeds in stabilising expectations as Nigeria enters the 2026 fiscal year.
