The Brazil presidential election is underway in a highly polarised first-round vote pitting leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against rightwing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as voters decide whether to extend the current government or return Jair Bolsonaro’s political movement to power.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is attempting to succeed his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a lengthy sentence after being convicted over an attempt to overturn the 2022 election result.
The election is being closely watched beyond Brazil because the outcome could influence Latin America’s political direction, relations with the United States and Brazil’s approach to China, environmental policy, social programmes and regional security.
Lula and Bolsonaro face high-stakes contest
Lula has presented the election as a choice between defending democracy and returning to what he describes as a more authoritarian political path.
After voting in São Bernardo do Campo, where his political career began almost five decades ago, Lula said: “People will have to choose between strengthening democracy and barbarism.”
The incumbent also played down the importance of the final opinion polls, saying the decisive measure would be the votes cast on election day.
“The poll that matters will be carried out today,” Lula said.
The latest polling before voting suggested a highly competitive contest, with Lula holding a narrow advantage in several first-round surveys but neither candidate consistently reaching the level needed to avoid a runoff. Reuters reported that a second round appeared likely based on the final polling picture.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a candidate must secure more than half of valid votes to win the presidency in the first round. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the two leading candidates proceed to a second-round vote.
The scheduled runoff is October 25.
Flávio Bolsonaro seeks first-round breakthrough
Flávio Bolsonaro has presented himself as the candidate capable of uniting Brazil’s right and defeating Lula.
After voting in Rio de Janeiro, he urged supporters of other rightwing candidates to back him in what he described as a “protest vote”.
“Our internal polls show people who would have voted for other candidates, who are also against Lula, already voting for Flávio Bolsonaro … I hope it’s enough to give us victory in the first round,” he said.
His campaign is closely associated with the political legacy of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, whose supporters remain a significant force in Brazilian politics.
One supporter, Claudinei Ferreira Viana, said his preferred candidate would have been Jair Bolsonaro but that he was supporting Flávio because he viewed him as the strongest rightwing challenger to Lula.
The Bolsonaro family’s continued influence has made the election partly a referendum on the political movement established by the former president.
Trump connection adds international dimension
The Brazil presidential election also carries significance for relations between Brasília and Washington.
Flávio Bolsonaro has frequently praised US President Donald Trump and has positioned himself as an ally of the American leader.
He has also pledged to seek an amnesty for his father if elected, while supporting closer relations with the United States.
Reuters reported that Trump has not formally endorsed Flávio, although he has hosted the Brazilian senator at the White House and publicly praised him.
Lula, meanwhile, has emerged as one of the Latin American leaders most openly critical of Trump.
The Brazilian president has accused the US administration of attempting to interfere in Brazil’s election in favour of Bolsonaro, allegations Washington has disputed.
That tension has added an international dimension to an election that is already being fought along deep ideological and cultural lines.
Bolsonaro legacy remains central
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has benefited from his ability to inherit much of his father’s political support.
Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost the 2022 election to Lula and remains a major figure among Brazil’s conservative electorate despite his legal troubles.
The former president was sentenced to 27 years in prison after being convicted of attempting to overturn the 2022 election result.
Flávio has made his father’s political rehabilitation an important part of his campaign and has pledged to seek an amnesty.
The possibility of a Bolsonaro return through his son has therefore become one of the defining issues of the election.
At the same time, Flávio has faced controversies of his own, including a recorded conversation involving a banker accused of corruption and questions surrounding a proposed film about his father.
Despite those controversies, he has remained competitive against Lula.
Lula faces economic and corruption concerns
Lula enters the election with significant political strengths but also faces dissatisfaction over the economy, crime and corruption allegations involving people close to his administration.
His supporters point to social programmes, falling inequality and improvements in employment and other economic indicators as evidence of his government’s record.
One Lula supporter interviewed by The Guardian said she was voting for him because of programmes supporting vulnerable groups and because she believed his policies had strengthened protections for Indigenous communities and the Amazon.
But Reuters reported that economic concerns, including inflation and household debt, have remained important issues for voters. Crime and corruption have also featured prominently in the campaign.
The incumbent has also faced corruption allegations involving his son and a former aide, although investigations remain ongoing.
A separate controversy involving Supreme Court justices has contributed to broader anti-establishment sentiment, despite the lack of a direct connection between the scandal and Lula.
Brazil’s political future at stake
The election is taking place against a wider regional backdrop in which rightwing and far-right political movements have gained ground across Latin America.
A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would strengthen that regional trend and could bring Brazil closer to Trump’s political camp.
Lula’s re-election, by contrast, would preserve Brazil’s current leftwing government and its more independent approach to Washington, while maintaining closer ties with countries such as China.
Brazil is also an important player in global climate politics because of its Amazon rainforest and its influence over environmental negotiations.
The election therefore extends beyond the personal contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Voters are also choosing 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 members of the federal Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the country’s 81 senators.
Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the election, according to the Associated Press.
Runoff could decide Brazil’s next president
With the leading candidates closely matched, the Brazil presidential election could move into a second stage on October 25.
Recent polls have produced varying results, but none has established a clear path for either Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro to secure the required majority in the first round. Reuters reported that the latest surveys pointed towards a competitive contest and a likely runoff.
A Datafolha poll released before election day put Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, although the margin remained within the poll’s margin of error. Another AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey had the two statistically tied in a simulated second round.
That means the first-round result could determine not only who advances but also how the political alliances and campaign strategies develop before the October 25 vote.
For Lula, the immediate challenge is to maintain support among voters concerned about the economy, crime and corruption while presenting himself as a defender of democratic institutions.
For Flávio Bolsonaro, the task is to consolidate Brazil’s rightwing electorate, attract supporters of other conservative candidates and convince undecided voters that he can turn his father’s political movement into a governing coalition.
The result will determine who leads Brazil for the next presidential term and could have consequences far beyond the country’s borders.
For Latin America, the United States and Brazil’s relations with major global powers, the Brazil presidential election represents one of the region’s most consequential political contests in years.
