US dramatically escalates air strikes on Somalia under Trump this year, with Washington intensifying aerial operations against armed groups, triggering concerns over civilian casualties and regional stability.
The United States has sharply expanded its military air campaign in Somalia, conducting 111 air strikes since President Donald Trump returned to office in January, monitoring groups report.
According to the New America Foundation, which tracks US counterterrorism operations, the strikes have targeted armed groups but have also resulted in civilian deaths.
The most recent operation occurred on December 14, when the US Africa Command carried out an air strike northeast of Kismayo, roughly 50 kilometres away.
AFRICOM said the strike targeted members of al-Shabaab, the armed group that has fought Somalia’s federal government and controlled large territories for years.
The escalation began in February, when Trump authorised his administration’s first strike in Somalia, signalling a dramatic policy shift from the previous White House.
Months later, a senior US Navy admiral described a subsequent operation as the “largest air strike in the history of the world” launched from an aircraft carrier.
That strike, conducted from a US carrier positioned in the Red Sea, marked a significant departure from the more restrictive approach adopted under President Joe Biden.
The total number of strikes this year has already surpassed the combined figures recorded under George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
If the pace continues, Trump is on track to exceed even his own first-term record of 219 air strikes conducted in Somalia.
US operations have targeted both al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate active since 2007, and ISIL’s Somali branch, often referred to as ISIL-Somalia.
Al-Shabaab controls large areas of Somalia’s south and central regions and continues to launch attacks against government forces and civilian targets.
ISIL-Somalia, by contrast, is smaller and concentrated in the northeast, with US estimates suggesting it has around 1,500 fighters.
Somalia’s conflict with armed groups ranked as Africa’s third-deadliest war over the past year, killing 7,289 people, according to US-based researchers.
The United States has long supported Somalia’s federal government through training elite units, providing intelligence and conducting air strikes alongside local forces.
US troops have also maintained a presence in the country, supporting counterterrorism operations and advising Somali security forces battling armed groups.
The recent surge in air strikes followed a directive by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reversing Biden-era restrictions on strike authorisations.
Those earlier rules required White House approval for strikes outside declared warzones, limiting commanders’ autonomy in launching operations.
Under the new directive, AFRICOM commanders gained greater authority, allowing quicker decisions and expanding the scope of offensive air operations.
David Sterman, a senior policy analyst at the New America Foundation, said there appeared to be “a demand signal from the White House for escalation”.
Sterman also observed “a willingness to allow more clearly offensive uses of strikes with less scrutiny and regulation” under the current administration.
According to Sterman, two primary drivers explain the sharp increase in air operations across Somalia this year.
More than half of the strikes have supported a US-backed campaign by Somalia’s autonomous Puntland region against ISIL-Somalia.
That Puntland campaign began after ISIL-Somalia attacked a military convoy in December 2024, prompting intensified regional and international responses.
US strikes have increasingly shifted from targeting senior leaders to sustained operations against fighters entrenched in mountain cave systems.
Sterman noted that militants have confined themselves to caves in northern Somalia, prompting repeated and concentrated air operations.
The remaining strikes have focused on al-Shabaab advances against Somali government forces in southern regions of the country.
US air power has supported a Somali National Army that has suffered setbacks on the ground throughout the year.
The opening operation on February 1 involved 16 F/A-18 Super Hornets launching from the USS Harry S Truman in the Red Sea.
Those aircraft dropped 60 tonnes of munitions on cave complexes in the Golis Mountains, according to US Africa Command.
AFRICOM said the strike killed 14 people, though independent verification of casualties has remained limited.
As the pace of strikes has increased, concerns over civilian casualties have intensified among journalists and human rights observers.
Investigative outlet Drop Site News reported that US strikes and Somali forces killed at least 11 civilians during a November 15 operation.
The report cited witnesses who said seven of those civilians were children killed in the Lower Jubba region.
Africa Command confirmed it conducted strikes supporting Somali troops but did not respond to requests addressing the reported civilian deaths.
The US military has recently stopped providing civilian casualty assessments in its public strike announcements, raising transparency concerns.
According to the military publication Stars and Stripes, the current operational tempo exceeds even US counter-narcotics strikes in the Caribbean.
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Beyond Somalia, Trump has also launched verbal attacks on Somali immigrants living in the United States, particularly in Minnesota.
Earlier this month, Trump made racist remarks as federal authorities prepared a major immigration crackdown targeting undocumented Somalis.
Those comments were denounced widely, from Mogadishu to Minneapolis, amid fears of increased discrimination against Somali communities.
Critics argue that the escalation abroad and rhetoric at home reflect a broader hardline approach toward Somalia and its diaspora.
Supporters within the administration contend the strikes are necessary to weaken armed groups threatening regional and international security.
As US dramatically escalates air strikes on Somalia under Trump this year, scrutiny over civilian harm and long-term effectiveness continues growing.
