Russia parliamentary election is taking place against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, with voters choosing a new State Duma in a tightly controlled contest in which Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party is expected to retain its dominant position.
The three-day parliamentary vote began on Friday and is scheduled to conclude on Sunday, with results expected after polling closes. The election is the first State Duma contest since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, at a time when the war is increasingly affecting everyday life inside the country.
United Russia faces limited competition
United Russia has controlled the Russian parliament for 23 years and is expected to extend its dominance after the latest election. Alongside it are several parties that are formally in opposition but remain part of what is commonly described as Russia’s “systemic opposition”.
These parties include the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, among others. They are permitted to criticise the authorities on selected issues, but generally support the Kremlin on matters considered important to the government.
The political environment has become even more restricted with the exclusion of Yabloko, a liberal party that has openly opposed the invasion of Ukraine. Russian authorities barred the party from the ballot last month, removing an important remaining vehicle for explicitly anti-war political campaigning.
The Guardian reported that Yabloko’s exclusion came after polling appeared to indicate stronger support for the party than authorities may have expected. Several observers have suggested that officials were unwilling to risk an unexpected electoral result, although such interpretations remain attributed to those observers rather than established as fact.
Campaign marked by unusual lack of activity
The election campaign has been notably subdued, with many candidates avoiding the spotlight and addressing few controversial subjects.
Political analyst Farida Rustamova, founder of the independent Vlast newsletter, said candidates in previous elections had competed for public attention, whereas many candidates this year appeared to be doing the opposite.
“In most elections, candidates compete for attention. In Russia this year, many are doing the opposite,” Rustamova said. “No one wants to come into the spotlight or discuss anything sensitive.”
Televised debates have also attracted attention for the absence of candidates. Some programmes have reportedly taken place in nearly empty studios after politicians failed to appear, with clips from the broadcasts subsequently circulating as memes online.
United Russia has relied heavily on campaign videos produced with low-budget artificial intelligence tools, while parties have offered few memorable slogans or major policy promises.
A person described as being close to the Kremlin said the authorities were deliberately keeping the election low-key because greater public interest could create unwanted attention around difficult issues.
“The Kremlin is deliberately keeping the election low-key, as greater interest would not benefit them. They don’t want to discuss difficult issues and just [want to] get it over with,” the person said.
Ukraine war increasingly influences Russian politics
Although the parliamentary result is widely expected to favour United Russia, the war in Ukraine has become an increasingly important backdrop to the election.
Ukrainian drones have struck oil refineries, factories and logistics facilities across Russia during the summer, bringing the consequences of the conflict closer to communities far from the front line.
Read also: China asks Iran to rein in Houthis after Saudi appeal
Polling has also indicated growing concern among some Russians about the direction of the war and its possible consequences.
The Kremlin has therefore sought to frame participation in the election as part of a broader display of national unity. In a televised address before voting began, Putin directly connected the election with the war and called on Russians to demonstrate support for the country’s soldiers.
“Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory and love for our homeland,” Putin said.
Election also provides political legitimacy
The vote carries significance for the Kremlin beyond the composition of the State Duma.
Vladimir Gelman, a professor of Russian politics at the University of Helsinki, said elections remain an important source of political legitimacy for the authorities, despite criticism over the restrictions placed on political competition.
“Even though these elections are neither free nor fair, they are still the only source of legitimacy,” Gelman said.
The Kremlin has also maintained that elections demonstrate public support for the country’s political system and its broader policies.
Putin secured another six-year presidential term in the 2024 election, extending his presidency until at least 2030. Genuine opposition candidates were barred from that contest, according to reports at the time.
Fears of another mobilisation
For some Russians, however, the more immediate concern is what could happen after the parliamentary election.
Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine has continued at a high cost, while reports and rumours of another large-scale mobilisation have spread in recent weeks.
The prospect has caused anxiety among some young men who fear that the Kremlin could introduce unpopular measures once the election has concluded and a new parliament is installed.
Some have reportedly left Russia temporarily, choosing countries such as Armenia as places to wait and see whether the situation changes.
The developments recall September 2022, when hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country after Putin announced a wartime mobilisation.
Putin has attempted to calm the concerns, dismissing suggestions on two occasions in recent weeks that another mobilisation was imminent. His reassurances, however, have not eliminated fears among some Russians.
One man identified as Dmitry travelled to Yerevan last week and said he intended to remain there for several weeks after the election before deciding what to do next.
“I’ll just wait a few weeks after the elections,” he said. “Let’s see if anything changes after the vote.”
What happens after the vote?
The immediate outcome of the Russia parliamentary election is expected to reinforce the existing balance of power in the State Duma, with United Russia maintaining its central role in parliament.
The more significant questions may emerge after the ballots are counted, particularly over the war in Ukraine, military recruitment and the possibility of further mobilisation.
The election is therefore taking place at a moment when domestic political control and the consequences of the war are increasingly intertwined. While the campaign itself has been relatively quiet, concerns among parts of the population suggest that the period following the vote could attract greater attention than the campaign that preceded it.
