The Gulf Proxy Threat is intensifying as regional governments warn that Iran may activate proxy militias across the Middle East amid its conflict with the United States and Israel.
Gulf nations including Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan issued a joint warning condemning Iranian-linked attacks on their territories.
They said assaults were conducted both directly from Iran and indirectly through “proxies and armed factioFriendly: Iran target positive result vs Eagles – Abarghoueins” operating across the region, raising fears of a broader destabilisation campaign underway.
Authorities in Kuwait revealed they had foiled a plot targeting state leaders, arresting suspects allegedly linked to Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most powerful regional allies.
For decades, Iran has relied on proxy militias to expand influence, with groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen playing central roles.
These organisations have allowed Tehran to project power beyond its borders while maintaining plausible deniability in conflicts across multiple countries, including Iraq and Syria.
Although relations between Iran and Gulf states improved in recent years, tensions have sharply escalated following the outbreak of war involving the US and Israel earlier this year.
Since late February, Iran has reportedly launched waves of missiles and drones, while Gulf countries hosting American military bases have become increasingly exposed to retaliation.
Security officials say the Gulf Proxy Threat is no longer limited to external attacks, as internal incidents linked to militia networks have begun to rise.
Several Gulf states have intensified crackdowns on suspected Iranian-linked cells operating within their borders, signalling growing concern about internal destabilisation.
Qatar confirmed it had dismantled two alleged cells connected to Iran, involving more than ten individuals suspected of covert operations.
Similarly, Bahrain announced arrests tied to espionage activities, while Kuwait uncovered a Hezbollah-linked network accused of plotting attacks against national security.
In their joint statement, Gulf governments also pointed to attacks originating from militia groups based in Iraq, urging authorities in Baghdad to intervene.
They called on the Iraqi government to “take the necessary measures to immediately halt the attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory.”
The warning reflects longstanding fears that Iraq-based militias, many aligned with Iran, could serve as launchpads for cross-border operations targeting neighbouring states.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, faces heightened risks due to its history of attacks by Iran-linked groups and its ongoing conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.
Although the Houthis have indicated they will not directly join the current war, analysts caution that their position could shift if the conflict escalates further.
Experts say the Gulf Proxy Threat could worsen significantly if Iran activates sleeper cells embedded across the region.
According to security analysts, there are early signs that dormant networks may already be reawakening, with arrests in countries like Kuwait and the UAE pointing to increased activity.
One analyst warned that “we haven’t seen them act on the threat fully yet, but there are some signs of dormant cells becoming active.”
The possibility of coordinated internal and external attacks is particularly alarming for Gulf leaders, who fear a multi-front security crisis.
Analysts note that while current conditions have not reached the intensity of the Iran-Iraq war era, the risk level continues to rise as hostilities persist.
During the 1980s conflict, militant cells carried out attacks across Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, leaving a legacy that still shapes regional security concerns today.
Gulf governments worry that a similar pattern could re-emerge if tensions with Iran continue to escalate without diplomatic resolution.
A key concern is the potential for proxy groups to become deeply entrenched within state structures, as seen in Iraq, where militias wield significant influence.
Such a scenario could create what experts describe as a “state within a state,” undermining national sovereignty and governance.
Security experts describe this as the most serious long-term risk associated with the Gulf Proxy Threat, surpassing even missile and drone attacks.
“If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario… is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region,” one analyst said.
The fear is that Gulf countries could face simultaneous external strikes and internal insurgencies, stretching their security forces to the limit.
This dual-front challenge could destabilise economies, disrupt oil production, and threaten global energy supplies given the region’s strategic importance.
Leaders are therefore weighing carefully whether to escalate militarily against Iran, knowing such actions could provoke further retaliation.
The presence of US military bases across the Gulf complicates the situation, making these countries key targets in any broader confrontation.
At the same time, diplomatic options appear limited, with trust between Iran and its Gulf neighbours deteriorating rapidly.
The joint statement from Gulf states underscores a rare moment of unity, reflecting shared anxiety over the growing influence of Iranian proxy networks.
Regional analysts say this coordinated stance signals that Gulf governments are preparing for a prolonged period of instability.
Despite efforts to contain the situation, the evolving nature of proxy warfare makes it difficult to predict how events will unfold.
Unlike conventional conflicts, proxy wars often involve decentralised actors capable of operating independently across multiple territories.
This increases the unpredictability of attacks and complicates intelligence efforts aimed at preventing them.
The Gulf Proxy Threat is therefore seen not just as a military issue, but as a broader challenge involving politics, security, and regional alliances.
Observers warn that without de-escalation, the Middle East could enter a new phase of conflict defined by covert operations and asymmetric warfare.
For now, Gulf states remain on high alert, intensifying surveillance and security measures to counter potential threats from within and beyond their borders.
As tensions continue to rise, the region faces a critical moment that could shape its geopolitical landscape for years to come.
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