Nigeria’s largest refinery, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, has adjusted its crude processing strategy by shifting towards lighter crude grades as it grapples with prolonged downtime at a key conversion unit, underscoring the operational challenges facing mega-refineries during early ramp-up phases.
A new outlook report by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler indicates that the refinery has increasingly processed lighter crude oil since the fourth quarter of 2025 to cushion the impact of the continued unavailability of its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), a unit critical for converting heavy fractions into high-value products such as gasoline.
The report, titled “Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven,” noted that the refinery has favoured crude grades with an API gravity of approximately 37 to 39.
This adjustment has enabled Dangote to preserve feedstock availability for key secondary units linked to the crude distillation unit (CDU), including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer, isomerisation, and hydrocracking units.
By leaning on lighter crude, the refinery has been able to keep these units operational, limiting the risk of major disruptions to gasoline and middle-distillate output at a time when the 200,000-barrel-per-day RFCC remains offline.
Dangote switches to lighter crude amid cracker downtime
Kpler explained that the strategy has played a stabilising role in recent months, even as repeated outages at the RFCC continue to cap overall refinery runs and slow the pace of full operational ramp-up.
“To minimise the impact of RFCC unavailability, the refinery has shifted toward a lighter crude slate, helping preserve feed availability to CDU-linked secondary units and reducing the risk of major disruptions to gasoline and middle distillate output,” the report stated.
According to the intelligence firm, crude runs in January were estimated at between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day and are expected to remain around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February.
These levels are significantly below the refinery’s nameplate capacity, reflecting the constraints imposed by the prolonged RFCC downtime.
Despite these limitations, Dangote Refinery has continued producing gasoline through alternative conversion pathways. Output has been supported by increased imports of gasoline blending components, allowing the facility to maintain supply volumes even with restricted internal conversion capacity.
Kpler estimates that gasoline blendstock imports into the refinery surged to around 45,000 barrels per day in January, highlighting the extent to which external inputs are being used to bridge the gap created by the RFCC outage.
During the same period, implied production stood at roughly 95,000 barrels per day of gasoline and close to 120,000 barrels per day of middle distillates, based on crude run estimates.
However, the outlook for a swift recovery remains uncertain. Market sources cited in the report said the restart of the RFCC, initially expected earlier in the year, has now been pushed to February 10, with lingering technical challenges raising the risk of further delays.
A short maintenance exercise on the crude distillation unit is also expected in early February, adding another layer of operational complexity.
“Dangote’s operational outlook remains uncertain as the RFCC restart could slip further,” Kpler noted, adding that the RFCC has been the key bottleneck since April 2025, following a series of outages that have repeatedly disrupted refinery operations.
The report added that crude imports into the refinery slowed materially in January, while exports of low-sulphur straight-run products increased in frequency, averaging around 120,000 barrels per day month-to-date.
This shift reflects ongoing efforts to optimise output and manage inventories amid constrained operating rates.
Looking ahead, Kpler projected that refinery runs could average about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and rise to around 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, assuming a gradual RFCC ramp-up from the third week of February.
Under this base-case scenario, gasoline production could average roughly 120,000 barrels per day in the first quarter and increase to about 150,000 barrels per day by mid-year.
Nevertheless, the firm cautioned that risks remain tilted to the downside, stressing that full stabilisation is still months away. RFCC reliability remains the single most important swing factor for the refinery’s performance, and any further delays could keep gasoline ramp-up constrained well into the first half of 2026.
“Refinery stabilisation is still likely months away, as RFCC reliability remains the key swing factor,” the report said.
“This type of extended ramp-up is common for mega-refineries and can take 24 to 36 months to reach steady operations.”
Energy analysts note that Dangote Refinery’s experience mirrors patterns seen at other large refinery start-ups globally, where critical conversion units often delay normalisation despite progress in other sections of the plant.
While such delays are not unusual, they underscore the technical and operational complexity involved in bringing large, single-train refineries to full capacity.
Once fully stabilised, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is expected to play a transformative role in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector by significantly reducing dependence on imported refined petroleum products and easing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
For now, however, the facility’s gradual and uneven ramp-up highlights the balancing act between operational resilience and technical constraints as Africa’s largest refinery works towards steady-state operations.
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