With less than two months to the end of the fiscal year, the Federal Government is yet to present the 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, escalating concerns about Nigeria’s unstable budget calendar and the heavy rollover of unexecuted 2024 capital projects.
The prolonged delay, economists warn, signals widening cracks in fiscal coordination and complicates planning for the country’s next expenditure cycle.
Findings confirmed on Monday show that the Budget Office of the Federation is still compiling the 2026 budget despite earlier commitments from the Tinubu administration to restore predictability to the annual budgeting process.
The missed timeline has revived debate over the sustainability of the January–December budget cycle, which had been upheld consistently for a few years before slipping into renewed uncertainty.
In a Budget Call Circular issued in July 2025, the Federal Government had indicated its intention to submit the 2026 budget by September, aligning with the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
The circular, signed by the Director-General of the Budget Office, Tanimu Yakubu, mandated ministers, permanent secretaries, service chiefs, and heads of agencies to begin preparing the personnel components of their proposals ahead of the September submission target.
However, as of November 17, the draft budget had not yet received Federal Executive Council approval—an essential step before transmission to lawmakers.
A senior ICT officer at the Budget Office confirmed that the compilation was ongoing but declined to provide further details, citing internal restrictions. He hinted that the rollover of the extended 2024 capital budget “complicated the entire process.”
Multiple Rollovers, One Bottleneck: The Budget Portal Lockdown
The complexity of Nigeria’s current budget environment can be traced to a series of interwoven delays.
After the 2024 budget was extended deep into 2025, many MDAs struggled to implement projects due to procurement bottlenecks and disruptions in the Bottom-Up Cash Planning portal.
Investigations earlier in the year showed that the portal—where MDAs submit monthly cash plans before funds are released—had been locked since May.
Without the submission of cash plans, the Ministry of Finance cannot issue spending warrants.
Without warrants, MDAs cannot upload payment plans. And without payment plans, no funds can move to contractors, suppliers, or project beneficiaries.
An official in a federal ministry, speaking anonymously for fear of sanctions, said that operations were still being funded under the 2024 budget, as implementation of the 2025 budget had not formally commenced.
This situation has led to widespread delays in salary reimbursements, contractor payments, and project mobilisations.
Economists Warn of Structural Breakdown
Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, told our correspondent that the country’s budget system is again sliding into disarray.
He noted that while the January–December cycle once brought order and predictability, the return to late submissions and rollovers threatens economic stability.
He warned that most capital projects are unlikely to proceed as scheduled, given the volume of outstanding commitments.
“The normalcy previously achieved in the budget cycle is already broken,” he said.
Ilias further emphasised that the uncertainty undermines investor confidence and weakens long-term project planning across government and private sector institutions.
Political Pressures and Revenue Uncertainty Complicate 2026 Planning
A Professor of Development Economics at the University of Lagos, Femi Saibu, offered a broader view of the fiscal challenges stalling the 2026 budget.
He identified three core issues confronting the Federal Government: the impact of ongoing tax reforms, political pressures ahead of election-driven activities, and the burden of two overlapping capital budgets.
According to Saibu, revenue projections for the 2026 budget cannot be finalised until the government determines which tax reforms will yield measurable revenue.
“Government needs to know which reforms translate into actual revenue before it can frame the 2026 projections,” he said.
He also stressed that 2026 is “technically an election year,” meaning political priorities will inevitably shape the budget.
Governments traditionally accelerate spending on visible projects ahead of election cycles, and the Tinubu administration, he said, will face pressures to include politically strategic capital items.
Most critically, he noted that Nigeria is currently operating with components of both the 2024 and 2025 capital budgets due to delays and underperformance.
“We are running around two capital budgets together,” he observed.
The challenge now, he added, is for the government to decide which projects to continue, roll over, or discontinue.
Borrowing Space Tightens, Fiscal Choices Narrow
Nigeria’s fiscal space continues to shrink as debt servicing obligations rise and revenue underperforms.
Saibu cautioned that Nigeria’s borrowing room is narrowing, forcing the government to prioritise projects more aggressively.
“Given the level of borrowing, the government must determine what it can realistically accomplish,” he said.
Despite the delays, Saibu argued that the extended timeline might allow the government to produce a more realistic and implementable budget.
He said it was better for the administration to take its time rather than present a budget misaligned with current macroeconomic realities.
However, he warned that public credibility would be threatened if revenue from tax reforms is not matched by visible improvements in public spending.
“If the government collects more taxes from people and delivers less than before, public trust will weaken,” he cautioned.
2025 Budget May Also Spill Over Into 2026
Asked whether the 2025 budget could also spill over into 2026, Saibu said such an outcome was “very likely.”
If the 2026 budget is not submitted soon, the entire cycle could drift well into mid-2026. “If we start the budget in September, it cannot end before July or August next year,” he explained.
He added that the government will face intense pressure to complete critical projects before political activities intensify.
A Critical Year Ahead for the Tinubu Administration
Analysts believe that 2026 will be a decisive test for the administration, as citizens weigh the costs of economic reforms against the government’s delivery of tangible public goods.
With capital projects stalled, budgets rolling over, and MDAs still operating on old allocations, the coming months will determine whether fiscal stability can be restored—or whether the system will continue to fracture under delays and administrative bottlenecks.
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