Nigeria’s petrol consumption recorded a noticeable decline in February 2026 as supply patterns across the country’s downstream petroleum sector continued to evolve. Fresh industry data shows that daily demand for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, fell by five per cent compared with the previous month.
The latest figures released by the nation’s petroleum regulator highlight shifting dynamics in fuel supply, particularly as domestic refining capacity gradually develops and supply from major facilities fluctuates.
Petrol consumption dips 5% to 56.9m litres in February – NMDPRA
Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres in February, representing a five per cent drop from the 60.2 million litres recorded in January, according to new data published by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Industry analysts say the development reflects changing supply conditions and evolving market dynamics in the country’s downstream petroleum sector.
The regulator’s report revealed that the decline in demand coincided with a drop in petrol supply from the massive refining complex owned by the Dangote Refinery.
According to the data, supply from the refinery fell to 36.5 million litres per day in February, down from 40.1 million litres per day recorded in January.
The drop in refinery output contributed to a broader decline in domestic petrol availability during the month under review.
Overall domestic petrol supply was estimated at 39.6 million litres per day in February, representing a sharp fall compared with the 64.9 million litres per day recorded in January.
Energy sector analysts note that these fluctuations are not unusual as Nigeria’s domestic refining ecosystem continues to adjust to new production capacities and operational realities.
The report also highlighted the continued inactivity of Nigeria’s three major state-owned refineries, which remained shut during the reporting period.
Facilities located in Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri recorded zero petrol production in February as rehabilitation and maintenance efforts continued.
Although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has repeatedly pledged to restore the refineries to full capacity, the plants have yet to resume meaningful petrol production.
Despite the lack of output, some previously refined petroleum products are still being evacuated from these facilities.
For instance, the Port Harcourt Refinery released diesel from existing stocks at an average rate of 0.392 million litres per day during the month.
Similarly, the Kaduna Refinery discharged diesel inventories to the market at about 0.027 million litres per day.
However, none of the facilities produced fresh petrol supplies during the period under review.
While petrol supply declined, diesel production and distribution saw notable improvement during the same timeframe.
The NMDPRA report indicated that the supply of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO)—commonly referred to as diesel—increased significantly.
Average diesel supply rose to 24.4 million litres per day in February, up from 18.9 million litres per day in January.
This growth was largely supported by output from several privately operated modular refineries across the country.
Among the operational facilities, the WalterSmith Refinery recorded a capacity utilisation rate of 59.66 per cent, delivering approximately 0.112 million litres of diesel per day.
Another facility, Edo Refinery and Petrochemicals Company, operated at a higher utilisation rate of 81.66 per cent, contributing about 0.085 million litres of diesel daily to the domestic market.
Meanwhile, Aradel Refinery operated at 34.47 per cent capacity utilisation, supplying 0.171 million litres of diesel per day.
However, not all modular refineries were operational during the period. The OPAC Refinery and Duport Refinery remained inactive throughout February.
Industry observers say modular refineries are increasingly playing an important role in Nigeria’s energy landscape by helping to bridge gaps in domestic fuel supply.
Although most of these facilities focus primarily on diesel production rather than petrol, their output contributes to reducing pressure on fuel imports and improving product availability in the market.
The decline in petrol consumption may also reflect changing consumer behaviour and economic conditions.
Energy economists note that rising fuel prices, economic adjustments and increased efficiency in transportation and logistics could be influencing fuel demand patterns across the country.
In addition, the ongoing development of domestic refining capacity is expected to reshape Nigeria’s downstream sector over time.
The commencement of large-scale refining operations by facilities such as the Dangote Refinery, combined with increased modular refinery activity, is gradually altering how petroleum products are produced and supplied within the country.
Experts believe that once Nigeria’s government-owned refineries are fully rehabilitated and domestic refining capacity expands further, the country could significantly reduce its reliance on imported petrol.
For now, however, fluctuations in supply from existing refineries and market demand continue to shape petrol consumption trends.
With regulatory authorities closely monitoring the market, industry stakeholders expect further adjustments in production, distribution and consumption patterns as Nigeria’s refining sector evolves.
The NMDPRA has indicated that it will continue to track supply levels, refinery output and fuel demand to ensure market stability and adequate product availability nationwide.
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