Nigeria’s oil output has recorded a notable performance in 2025, reaching 454.28 million barrels of crude oil and condensates between January and September, according to the latest report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The report, which highlights trends in production, market performance, and infrastructure reliability, revealed that Nigeria’s oil output continues to face fluctuations despite recent gains in security and operational efficiency across the Niger Delta.
Of the total volume, crude oil contributed 399.81 million barrels, while condensates accounted for 54.47 million barrels—representing about 12 per cent of the country’s total liquid hydrocarbon production.
This equates to an average of 1.66 million barrels per day (mbpd), comprising 1.46 mbpd of crude and 0.20 mbpd of condensates.
Monthly Trends Reflect Ongoing Challenges in Nigeria’s Oil Output
Data from the NUPRC showed that Nigeria’s oil output peaked in January 2025, when the country pumped 47.7 million barrels of crude and a total of 53.86 million barrels of liquids.
However, output fell sharply in February to 41.02 million barrels, marking the lowest monthly production within the nine-month period.
Between March and July, output stabilised above 50 million barrels monthly before slipping again to 41.69 million barrels in September.
The NUPRC attributed this latest decline to the nationwide labour strike that disrupted operations and delayed crude evacuations during industrial disputes involving refinery workers.
Additionally, the commission cited scheduled maintenance activities at some onshore facilities as another factor that contributed to reduced production.
By September, the country’s crude production averaged about 93 per cent of its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd—signalling a second consecutive month of underperformance. Nigeria had only met its quota in January, June, and July.
Top Producing Terminals Drive Nigeria’s Oil Output
The report identified several key terminals as central to sustaining Nigeria’s oil output.
Forcados Terminal emerged as the highest producer with 67.1 million barrels between January and September, followed by Bonny Terminal with 60.54 million barrels.
Qua Iboe and Escravos terminals contributed 40.66 million and 37.36 million barrels respectively.
Brass Terminal also recorded 7.31 million barrels of crude and 1.81 million barrels of condensates. Other contributors included Odudu (Amenam Blend), which maintained production above 2 million barrels monthly, and Tulja–Okweibome, which produced between 1.6 and 2.2 million barrels per month.
Smaller onshore streams like Okoro, Antan, and Otakpipo also maintained steady but modest outputs.
Deepwater assets continued to be the backbone of national production. Bonga Field, operated by Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company, remained a key contributor with total production of 32.89 million barrels over the nine-month period.
Erha Field (ExxonMobil) added 18.93 million barrels, while Egina Field (TotalEnergies) produced 17.84 million barrels.
Condensate Production Strengthens Nigeria’s Oil Output Mix
Condensate production, which plays a crucial role in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon portfolio, reached 54.47 million barrels within the period under review.
Chevron’s Agbami Field topped condensate production with 21.78 million barrels, followed by TotalEnergies’ Akpo Field with 14.38 million barrels. Tulja–Okweibome Condensate maintained an average output of 280,000 barrels per month.
According to NUPRC, the consistent contribution from condensate fields has helped cushion the impact of crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism on Nigeria’s oil output.
Experts Call for Stability and Reform to Boost Nigeria’s Oil Output
Energy experts have stressed that sustaining production above 1.6 mbpd will require stronger security measures across oil-producing corridors, accelerated field redevelopment, and effective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The NUPRC reiterated its commitment to improving metering accuracy, enforcing compliance standards, and enhancing collaboration with operators to stabilise the sector.
In July, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) reported significant success in restoring crude evacuation pipelines to full functionality.
The company confirmed that five key pipelines—the Trans-Niger, Oando Brass, Trans-Forcados, Trans-Escravos, and Trans-Ramos pipelines—achieved 100 per cent operational availability between May and June 2025.
These critical pipelines, which traverse major economic corridors in the Niger Delta, are vital for moving crude oil from wellheads to export terminals.
However, despite these operational gains, NNPCL’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, lamented that Nigeria’s oil producers have yet to ramp up output sufficiently to meet the government’s 2025 production target of 2.02 mbpd, as projected in the national budget.
Ojulari emphasised that while pipeline integrity has improved, upstream investments and production efficiency must increase to align with fiscal expectations and global market competitiveness.
Looking Ahead: Rebuilding Confidence in Nigeria’s Oil Output
Industry analysts believe that the path forward for Nigeria’s oil output hinges on improved investor confidence, transparent regulatory enforcement, and sustained security surveillance against crude theft.
They note that while production figures show a gradual rebound, persistent underperformance against OPEC targets highlights structural inefficiencies that must be addressed urgently.
The government’s renewed drive for energy transition and private sector participation is expected to play a key role in revamping production capacity.
Experts also urge authorities to accelerate marginal field developments and incentivise foreign investment to restore Nigeria’s position as Africa’s leading oil producer.
As the global energy landscape evolves, ensuring stability in Nigeria’s oil output remains central to achieving fiscal sustainability, export diversification, and economic resilience.
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