Nigeria’s electricity sector is facing renewed operational pressure as power generation dropped significantly in February, highlighting persistent structural challenges in the country’s energy system. Fresh data released by regulators shows that electricity supply to the national grid fell sharply, largely due to gas shortages and operational constraints affecting several generation plants.
The development has raised concerns among industry stakeholders about the reliability of electricity supply, especially at a time when demand for power continues to rise across households and businesses.
National grid power supply drops to 32% in February
The national grid power supply drops to 32% in February, according to the latest operational data released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, signalling ongoing challenges within Nigeria’s power generation infrastructure.
The commission’s February operational performance factsheet revealed that only 32 percent of the country’s installed electricity generation capacity was available for dispatch during the month.
This represents a decline from 36 percent recorded in January 2026, and a sharper drop from the 41 percent availability level recorded in December, reflecting worsening operational conditions across the electricity generation segment.
Nigeria currently has an installed generation capacity of 13,625 megawatts (MW) across grid-connected power plants. However, the report indicates that only 4,384 MW was available for dispatch in February, down from 5,177 MW in the previous month.
The drop represents a 15 percent decline in available generation capacity, further widening the gap between electricity supply and national demand.
High demand despite falling generation
Despite the reduction in generation capacity, electricity demand across the country remained strong during the review period.
According to the report, distribution companies within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) continued to nominate large volumes of electricity for dispatch from power plants.
The data showed that approximately 4,102 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity was actually dispatched to the national grid, representing a 93 percent load factor.
A high load factor typically indicates that distribution companies are requesting as much power as possible from generators, suggesting that demand for electricity remains significantly higher than available supply.
Industry analysts say the situation highlights the persistent imbalance between electricity generation capacity and consumer demand in Nigeria’s power sector.
Top performing power plants
While most generation plants struggled to operate at optimal capacity, a few facilities recorded relatively strong operational performance during the month.
Among the top-performing plants were Ihovbor 2, Kainji 1, and Jebba 1, which demonstrated higher levels of availability and energy dispatch.
The Ihovbor Power Plant emerged as one of the strongest contributors to the national grid, delivering significant output despite the broader challenges facing the sector.
Similarly, the Kainji Dam and Jebba Hydroelectric Power Station maintained relatively strong generation performance during the month.
Data from the regulator also showed that the top 10 power plants accounted for about 82 percent of total electricity generation in February, slightly higher than the 79 percent recorded in January.
However, the majority of the remaining plants operated far below their installed capacity levels.
Limited plants operating near full capacity
Out of the 28 grid-connected power plants operating within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry, only one plant achieved full capacity utilisation during the review period.
The Geregu Power Station recorded 100 percent output, generating its full capacity of 106 MW.
Other relatively strong performers included the Ikeja West Power Station, which achieved 95 percent capacity utilisation, producing 104 MW out of its installed 110 MW capacity.
Meanwhile, Kainji 1 generated approximately 574 MW, representing 99 percent of its installed capacity, while Ihovbor 2 operated at about 91 percent capacity, producing roughly 404 MW.
Beyond these plants, however, most other facilities recorded output levels below 43 percent capacity utilisation, indicating widespread operational inefficiencies across the sector.
Gas shortages affecting thermal plants
The report attributed the decline in power generation primarily to chronic gas shortages, which continue to affect thermal power plants that rely heavily on natural gas as fuel.
Gas-fired plants make up the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity generation infrastructure, meaning disruptions in gas supply often translate directly into lower electricity output.
During February, most thermal plants experienced significant downtime due to insufficient gas supply, with only one facility surpassing the 43 percent capacity threshold.
Energy experts say the gas supply challenge remains one of the most critical bottlenecks in Nigeria’s electricity value chain.
Pipeline vandalism, supply disruptions, and contractual issues between gas producers and power generation companies have repeatedly constrained gas delivery to power plants.
Hydro generation also affected
In addition to gas shortages, low water levels in some hydroelectric reservoirs also contributed to the reduced electricity output recorded during the month.
Hydropower plants such as Kainji and Jebba rely on sufficient water inflows to maintain optimal generation levels.
Seasonal variations and environmental conditions can therefore influence their production capacity, further affecting total electricity supply to the national grid.
Growing concerns over energy reliability
The continued decline in generation capacity has intensified concerns about Nigeria’s ability to maintain a stable electricity supply for its rapidly growing population.
Businesses across multiple sectors—including manufacturing, telecommunications, and services—rely heavily on consistent electricity supply to sustain operations.
However, frequent power shortages force many companies to depend on diesel or petrol-powered generators, significantly increasing operating costs.
Industry stakeholders have repeatedly called for stronger investment in gas infrastructure, grid modernisation, and renewable energy projects to improve the reliability of electricity supply.
Calls for structural reforms
Energy experts argue that addressing Nigeria’s electricity challenges will require deeper structural reforms across the entire power value chain.
These reforms include expanding gas supply infrastructure, improving transmission capacity, and encouraging private investment in generation and renewable energy development.
Regulators and policymakers have also emphasised the need for stronger coordination among stakeholders within the electricity sector.
Without decisive reforms, analysts warn that electricity shortages could continue to undermine economic productivity and slow Nigeria’s industrial growth.
