US-Iran War Petrol Price Impact Sparks Dispute Between Marketers and Dangote Refinery
The escalating geopolitical tensions triggered by the US-Iran war petrol price impact have ignited a fresh dispute in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, as oil marketers and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery exchange arguments over the rising cost of petrol in the country.
Industry data released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) indicated that the landing cost of imported petrol is currently cheaper than the ex-depot price offered by the Dangote refinery.
However, the refinery has dismissed the claim, insisting that global disruptions in the oil market—largely driven by the Middle East crisis—are responsible for the current pricing structure.
The disagreement comes at a time when the global oil market is reacting sharply to intensifying hostilities involving the United States, Iran, Israel and other regional actors.
Marketers cite cheaper import costs
According to data compiled by MEMAN, the landing cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, stood at N809.37 per litre, compared to the Dangote refinery’s ex-depot price of N874 per litre.
This creates a price difference of roughly N64 per litre, a development that has reignited debate over the competitiveness of local refining.
The association’s pricing template also revealed similar trends in diesel pricing. Dangote refinery’s diesel was priced around N1,169.42 per litre, while imported diesel landed at approximately N1,125.70 per litre.
Industry observers say the US-Iran war petrol price impact is already reshaping fuel economics globally, as rising crude oil prices drive up refining and distribution costs.
Dangote refinery dismisses claims
Officials of the Dangote refinery rejected the marketers’ analysis, arguing that the narrative was being promoted by importers seeking to maintain Nigeria’s dependence on foreign fuel supply.
One official who spoke on condition of anonymity challenged marketers to demonstrate the feasibility of importing petroleum products amid the volatile situation in the Middle East.
According to the official, the US-Iran war petrol price impact is affecting international logistics and freight costs, making it increasingly risky for importers to rely on overseas supply chains.
He maintained that local refining has helped shield Nigeria from severe disruptions already being experienced in other countries.
Global tensions push oil prices higher
The refinery recently increased its gantry price of petrol from N774 to N874 per litre, citing a rapid increase in crude oil prices.
Benchmark Brent crude has risen above $84 per barrel, up from less than $70 per barrel only weeks earlier. Analysts attribute the surge largely to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The ripple effect of the US-Iran war petrol price impact has been felt across several markets.
In the United Kingdom, motorists rushed to petrol stations following reports of potential supply shortages. Some filling stations experienced long queues as fuel prices increased by as much as 11 pence per litre.
Nigeria, however, has largely avoided widespread scarcity, partly due to increased domestic refining capacity.
Dangote refinery boosts local supply
Recent data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicates that the Dangote refinery is now responsible for the majority of petrol supply in Nigeria.
The country’s total average petrol supply reached 64.9 million litres per day in January 2026.
Out of this figure:
40.1 million litres per day came from domestic refineries, mainly Dangote.
24.8 million litres per day came from imported supplies.
This marked the first time domestic production overtook imports in over a year.
Energy analysts say this development demonstrates how local refining can cushion the country against the US-Iran war petrol price impact and other global supply disruptions.
Crude supply challenges persist
Despite its growing role in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, the Dangote refinery has raised concerns about insufficient crude oil supply from domestic producers.
The company stated that it currently receives only five crude cargoes per month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), far below the 13 cargoes required to sustain optimal operations.
As a result, the refinery said it has been forced to procure additional crude from international traders at higher prices.
This situation, the company noted, further compounds the US-Iran war petrol price impact, as global crude prices and freight rates continue to rise.
Experts call for increased oil production
Energy experts have urged the Nigerian government to boost crude oil production in order to support local refineries and maximise revenue.
Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, a respected petroleum economist, said Nigeria must prioritise security around oil infrastructure and ensure regulatory efficiency to improve production levels.
According to him, Nigeria generated roughly N55 trillion from crude oil in 2025, slightly higher than the N50 trillion recorded in 2024. However, the country still fell short of its production targets.
He explained that Nigeria planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but only managed about 599.6 million barrels, leaving a gap of nearly 167 million barrels.
Improving production, he said, would help reduce the US-Iran war petrol price impact on the domestic economy.
Outlook for petrol prices
Market analysts warn that petrol prices could rise further if crude oil climbs toward $90 per barrel in the coming weeks.
Should that scenario occur, retail petrol prices in Nigeria could approach N1,100 per litre, especially if global supply disruptions intensify.
Despite the uncertainty, industry stakeholders say expanding domestic refining capacity remains Nigeria’s best defence against global fuel shocks.
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