Nigeria’s delicate path to economic recovery is facing new turbulence as the Dangote refinery standoff with the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) raises fears of industrial paralysis, investor flight, and worsening energy insecurity.
At a press briefing on Tuesday, the Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, warned that the dispute has far-reaching implications for production, trade, and employment.
Manufacturers Raise Alarm Over Dangote Refinery Standoff
Ajayi-Kadir explained that the ongoing Dangote refinery standoff threatens the manufacturing sector by disrupting access to fuel, logistics, and energy supply.
He cautioned that prolonged disruption could cripple local factories and open the market to foreign products.
“How the Dangote-PENGASSAN face-off affects manufacturers is that factories will be unable to produce. We are likely to suffer cuts to our production schedule.
We will be unable to have a market. We can lose market edge, and imported products that are not suffering this disruption are likely to fill the gap,” he warned.
The MAN boss also noted that the crisis could worsen unemployment, reduce household incomes, and erode government revenue.
“This will also come back to the government because Company Income Tax is based on what you have produced.
It is in the interest of labour, government, manufacturers, and Dangote Refinery that they resolve this quickly.”
Investor Confidence at Risk
Ajayi-Kadir stressed that the Dangote refinery standoff sends a damaging message to international investors.
He argued that if a $20bn investment like Dangote’s refinery can be undermined by unresolved industrial disputes, it signals instability to foreign capital inflows.
“This is a $20bn investment, and we cannot afford to let it degenerate into bedlam.
The signal this dispute sends to the international community is unfortunate,” he said.
NECA Condemns Disruption of Operations
The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) also condemned PENGASSAN’s strike threats, describing them as reckless and harmful to the economy.
NECA’s Director-General, Adewale Oyerinde, said the Dangote refinery standoff highlights the need for structured dispute resolution instead of industrial sabotage.
“Conflict is inevitable in the labour ecosystem, but Nigeria has frameworks such as the Industrial Arbitration Panel and the National Industrial Court to address disputes.
Any action capable of discouraging investment or undermining enterprise sustainability will be counter-productive,” Oyerinde warned.
He urged the Ministry of Labour and Employment to intervene decisively to protect businesses and workers.
“Nigeria’s recovering economy cannot be sacrificed on the altar of actions and pronouncements alien to global industrial relations practice.”
Policy Experts Warn of Energy Shock
The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AREET), a policy think tank, also raised concerns that the Dangote refinery standoff could destabilise Nigeria’s economy if left unresolved.
AREET described the crisis as a “severe asymmetric shock” to energy security and macroeconomic stability.
It warned that any prolonged disruption at the 650,000 barrels per day refinery could push Nigeria back into costly fuel imports, widen the trade deficit, and place additional pressure on foreign reserves.
The group highlighted that recent gains in external reserves—standing at $42bn—and the Central Bank’s reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate from 27.5% to 27% could be quickly eroded if refinery operations remain stalled.
“Such a scenario could trigger fuel scarcity, rising power costs, inflationary pressure, capital flight, and exchange rate depreciation,” AREET said.
Calls for Urgent Mediation
The think tank recommended that the Federal Government convene an emergency tripartite meeting within 48 hours involving PENGASSAN, the NLC, Dangote management, the Ministries of Labour and Petroleum, and the Central Bank, with an independent mediator present.
It further proposed a forensic probe into the sabotage allegations, a temporary suspension of dismissals until due process is followed, and a coordinated strategy to reassure citizens and investors of fuel supply continuity.
Broader Economic Risks
Analysts say the Dangote refinery standoff has already created uncertainty in the downstream sector, with fears of fuel scarcity and rising transport costs.
Manufacturers warn that prolonged disruptions could erode Nigeria’s industrialisation agenda, while economists caution that inflation and investor sentiment may worsen.
AREET also warned of potential political implications if fuel scarcity leads to public discontent and protests ahead of the 2027 general elections.
A Test for Nigeria’s Economic Stability
Despite Federal Government mediation, talks have so far ended in stalemate.
The standoff is now seen as a test of Nigeria’s ability to balance labour rights, private investment, and national energy stability.
Industry experts argue that resolving the Dangote refinery standoff transparently and swiftly is critical to protecting livelihoods, sustaining investor confidence, and safeguarding Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery.
For now, manufacturers, employers, and policymakers remain on edge, hoping for a breakthrough that will prevent further disruption to Africa’s largest refinery and Nigeria’s industrial future.
