Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on petrol importation persisted throughout 2025, despite the emergence of large-scale domestic refining, underscoring the depth of structural challenges in the country’s downstream petroleum sector.
Fresh regulatory data show that petrol importers supplied nearly two-thirds of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumed nationwide last year, outpacing domestic refineries even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local facilities ramped up operations.
According to the latest midstream and downstream petroleum sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), total petrol consumption in Nigeria stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025. Of this volume, imports accounted for about 11.85 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied 7.54 billion litres.
The figures translate to 62.47 per cent import dependence, leaving local refining with a 37.53 per cent share of total national consumption.
Petrol Importation Nigeria 2025 Remains the Market Anchor
The data highlight how petrol importation Nigeria 2025 remained the dominant supply source, even in the first full year of large-scale PMS production from the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
While domestic output improved steadily over the year, import volumes continued to track consumption patterns closely, filling supply gaps during periods of demand spikes, logistics disruptions, and refinery output fluctuations.
Regulatory officials attribute the sustained reliance on imports to a combination of gradual refinery ramp-up, crude oil supply constraints, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the dynamics of a fully deregulated petrol pricing environment following subsidy removal.
For decades, Nigeria—Africa’s largest crude oil producer—has relied heavily on imported petrol after the collapse of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
That dependence deepened during the subsidy era, which masked inefficiencies while draining public finances and foreign exchange reserves.
Although the operational launch of the Dangote refinery in late 2024 was widely viewed as a turning point, 2025 data suggest the transition to domestic self-sufficiency is still unfolding.
Monthly Consumption Shows Volatility
A breakdown of the NMDPRA data shows significant month-on-month fluctuations in petrol demand across 2025, reflecting seasonal travel patterns, economic pressures, and price adjustments.
National consumption rose from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, marking a 23.7 per cent increase over the year.
September recorded the lowest demand at 1.31 billion litres, while December saw the highest monthly consumption amid festive travel and logistics activity.
Imports mirrored these swings. In May, marketers imported 1.20 billion litres, accounting for about 71 per cent of total consumption that month.
November recorded the sharpest spike, with imports hitting 1.56 billion litres, equivalent to nearly 98 per cent of national demand.
Domestic refinery supply, largely driven by Dangote, showed a slower and uneven trajectory.
Output dipped mid-year before rebounding strongly in the final quarter, culminating in 992 million litres in December, the highest monthly domestic supply recorded in 2025.
Dangote’s Performance and Supply Gap
According to regulatory benchmarks, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to supply about 600 million litres of PMS monthly, translating to 7.2 billion litres annually.
Actual deliveries reached 7.54 billion litres, slightly exceeding expectations on paper, though operational variability meant imports were still required to stabilise supply.
In December, domestic supply averaged 32 million litres per day, narrowing the gap with imports and signalling improving operational stability.
However, over the full year, imports consistently exceeded domestic output in most months.
Industry analysts note that while Dangote’s contribution is significant, national petrol supply outcomes are shaped by market structure rather than refinery capacity alone.
Competing Claims Over Import Elimination
Public statements from refinery officials and some marketer groups have suggested that petrol importation has either reduced sharply or ceased altogether under current pricing conditions.
However, independent experts caution against such claims.
Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare has argued that Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an import-parity framework, where the option to import—rather than the physical arrival of cargoes—anchors price stability and supply security.
According to Iledare, petrol importation Nigeria 2025 declined in marginal terms but has not been eliminated, serving instead as a risk-management mechanism against refinery downtime, demand surges, and logistics failures.
“The credible threat of imports remains the market anchor,” he noted, adding that the Petroleum Industry Act entrenches liberalisation and competition, leaving no room for discretionary declarations that importation has ended.
Economic Implications and Policy Direction
Data from petroleumprice.ng indicate that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has risen sharply, from less than five per cent in 2022 to roughly 40 per cent in 2025—a milestone many analysts describe as historic.
However, experts argue that meaningful macroeconomic impact will only occur when local refining accounts for at least 70 per cent of national consumption, with imports reduced to a complementary role.
Such a shift would ease pressure on foreign exchange, stabilise fuel pricing, create jobs, and strengthen the naira.
Achieving it, analysts say, will depend on sustained crude supply to local refineries, infrastructure efficiency, transparent regulation, and consistent market signals.
Looking ahead, petrol import volumes could decline further if the Federal Government proceeds with the proposed 15 per cent PMS import tariff, expected to take effect in 2026.
Increased crude allocation to domestic refineries, particularly Dangote, may also accelerate the transition.
For now, the 2025 data offer a clear snapshot of a sector in transition: domestic refining has gained ground, but petrol importation Nigeria 2025 remains the backbone of national supply.
The figures underscore a sobering reality—while Nigeria has taken decisive steps toward energy self-sufficiency, the journey from import dependence to domestic dominance is far from complete.
