The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its global oil demand and supply projections for 2025 but introduced a notable shift in consumption trends that could reshape energy markets in the coming years.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, released on Monday, OPEC revealed that jet fuel is set to lead demand growth in 2025, while gasoline will become the primary driver of consumption by 2026.
According to the OPEC oil demand forecast, the steady rebound in global mobility, particularly in aviation and road transport, will sustain consumption levels and support market stability amid ongoing global energy transitions.
The group projects that oil demand will increase by 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 105.14 million bpd in 2025, followed by another 1.38 million bpd growth in 2026, bringing global consumption to 106.52 million bpd.
Jet Fuel and Gasoline Drive Growth in OPEC Oil Demand Forecast
The latest OPEC report underscores how changes in transportation patterns are influencing global energy needs.
The OPEC oil demand forecast highlights that the ongoing recovery in international air travel will be a key growth driver in 2025, with jet/kerosene consumption expected to rise by 380,000 bpd year-on-year.
Diesel and gasoline are projected to follow closely, with increases of 300,000 bpd and 280,000 bpd, respectively.
For 2026, OPEC anticipates a shift in consumption trends, with gasoline overtaking jet fuel as the leading growth contributor, expanding by 430,000 bpd.
Jet/kerosene will maintain momentum, adding 360,000 bpd, while diesel’s growth rate is expected to slow to 190,000 bpd. LPG and naphtha demand, primarily driven by petrochemical activities, are forecast to increase by a combined 400,000 bpd.
Analysts interpret these projections as a sign of renewed confidence in post-pandemic global mobility, with both passenger travel and industrial output sustaining fuel demand despite energy diversification efforts.
Regional Demand Trends and Economic Shifts
The OPEC oil demand forecast also reveals regional adjustments, with modest downward revisions for China and India compared to the previous month.
However, stronger demand expectations from other parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America have helped maintain OPEC’s overall non-OECD growth estimate at around 1.2 million bpd.
The report notes that emerging economies will continue to play a critical role in oil consumption patterns due to rapid industrialisation, population growth, and increasing vehicle ownership.
Africa’s expanding transportation networks and infrastructure development are particularly seen as long-term demand boosters.
Energy analysts believe these projections show OPEC’s confidence that the global energy system still heavily depends on hydrocarbons, even as renewable energy adoption accelerates.
OPEC’s Production Outlook Remains Stable
On the supply side, OPEC has left its non-OPEC+ production forecasts unchanged, reflecting stable expectations for output from key producers such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
The organisation projects non-OPEC+ oil output growth at 810,000 bpd in 2025 and 630,000 bpd in 2026, suggesting a measured expansion in global supply.
OPEC+ crude production, including Mexico, increased by 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd, according to secondary sources.
The group’s estimate for the “call on OPEC+ crude” — the volume required to balance the market — remains steady at 42.5 million bpd in 2025 and 43.1 million bpd in 2026.
Market analysts say OPEC’s cautious supply management underscores its commitment to maintaining price stability, especially as demand gradually strengthens.
Balancing the Market Amid Transition Pressures
The OPEC oil demand forecast comes at a time when global oil markets are under pressure from both demand uncertainty and energy transition policies.
As governments push for cleaner energy alternatives, OPEC’s projections suggest that fossil fuels will remain central to global energy supply for at least the next two years.
The organisation noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions, supply chain constraints, and uneven global economic recovery could still influence short-term demand patterns.
However, its unchanged forecast reflects optimism that demand recovery will continue through 2026.
Energy market experts also note that the gasoline-led rebound in 2026 signals a sustained reliance on internal combustion vehicles, especially in emerging economies where electric vehicle adoption remains low due to infrastructure and affordability challenges
Outlook for 2025–2026: Steady Growth Ahead
While maintaining a conservative tone, OPEC’s latest report reinforces expectations that global oil demand will continue to grow moderately despite decarbonisation policies and shifting investment priorities.
The organisation expects global oil consumption to remain above 105 million bpd throughout 2025, stabilising supply-demand balance as economies recover from inflationary and monetary headwinds.
For oil-exporting countries, the outlook offers optimism for fiscal stability and export earnings.
However, it also calls for strategic diversification to cushion against long-term volatility in fossil fuel markets.
As the OPEC oil demand forecast shows, the coming years will be defined by balancing growth and sustainability.
With aviation, transportation, and petrochemical industries driving consumption, the oil market remains resilient — even amid a global push toward clean energy.
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