Nigeria’s trade with African countries has recorded a remarkable upswing, expanding by N610bn in the first half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The new figures show total intra-African trade rising to N4.82tn, compared with N4.21tn in the corresponding period of 2024, highlighting growing regional economic engagement despite foreign exchange volatility and external headwinds.
Strong Recovery in Q2 Drives Growth
The report reveals that the bulk of this increase in Nigeria’s trade with African countries came from a sharp rebound in the second quarter of the year.
Trade value climbed to N2.97tn in Q2 2025, up from N1.98tn in the same period last year — a near-trillion-naira jump that more than offset the marginal slowdown recorded in Q1.
In the first quarter, total trade had dropped slightly to N1.86tn, compared with N2.24tn in Q1 2024.
However, the strong recovery in Q2 lifted the half-year total, underscoring the resilience of Nigeria’s trade performance within the continent despite challenges in logistics, foreign exchange rates, and border infrastructure.
Export Boom Sustains Trade Surplus
The NBS data show that exports remain the dominant component of Nigeria’s trade with African countries.
Total exports rose to N4.82tn in H1 2025, compared with N4.21tn in the same period last year, driven largely by crude oil, refined petroleum, solid minerals, and manufactured goods.
Imports, on the other hand, grew at a slower pace — rising to N1.82tn from N1.13tn.
This reflects the fact that Nigeria continues to sell more goods to other African nations than it imports, sustaining a healthy trade surplus of N2.99tn in the first half of 2025.
Although the surplus slightly narrowed from N3.08tn in H1 2024, analysts attribute the change to higher import bills in Q1 2025, when import value surged to N1.00tn, more than doubling the N401.8bn recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Exports in the same quarter fell marginally to N1.85tn, compared with N2.24tn a year earlier.
By Q2, however, the balance swung back in Nigeria’s favour, with exports climbing significantly and imports easing, resulting in a trade surplus of N2.15tn.
Dollar Figures Show Real Challenges
When expressed in dollar terms, the growth in Nigeria’s trade with African countries appears more modest.
The total trade value stood at $3.13bn in H1 2025, compared with $2.89bn in H1 2024.
This remains well below the $4.51bn achieved in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global trade.
The apparent discrepancy between the naira and dollar figures stems from the sharp depreciation of the local currency.
In 2019, N1.38tn in African trade was worth $4.51bn at an average exchange rate of N306.73/$. By 2025, however, N4.82tn equalled just $3.13bn at an exchange rate of N1,538.50/$, reflecting the steep decline of the naira over the six-year period.
This shows that while the naira value of Nigeria’s trade with African countries appears inflated, the real dollar volume of trade remains below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the ongoing challenges of exchange rate instability.
Shifting Trade Dynamics Amid U.S. Frictions
The growth in intra-African trade comes as Nigeria faces increasing trade frictions with the United States.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that American imports of Nigerian goods plunged by 41 per cent in July 2025 — from $639m in June to $379m in July.
The decline coincided with reduced U.S. exports to Nigeria, which fell from $919m to $584m over the same period.
Although the U.S. still recorded a trade surplus of $206m in July, the sharp contraction in trade volumes has raised concerns about the weakening of Nigeria’s traditional surplus position with Washington.
The downturn follows President Nigeria’s trade with African countries
NBS report
African Continental Free Trade Area
Nigerian exports
Trade balance’s decision to impose higher tariffs on Nigerian exports, raising duties from 14 per cent to 15 per cent under a new “reciprocal trade” framework targeting countries that run surpluses against the U.S.
While crude oil has been partly exempted, the uncertainty surrounding non-oil exports has dampened American demand for Nigerian goods.
Policy Shifts and Regional Integration
As the U.S. tightens its trade policies and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches expiration, Nigeria appears to be strengthening its regional partnerships.
The federal government has reiterated its commitment to leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost regional exports and create a more diversified trade portfolio.
Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, recently affirmed that the country will remain focused on its economic reform agenda rather than retaliate against protectionist measures.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole stated.
She noted that while the United States remains a vital trade partner, Nigeria’s trade with African countries is becoming increasingly strategic, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and solid minerals.
Analysts predict that intra-African trade will continue to expand through the remainder of 2025 as Nigeria deepens engagement with regional partners under the AfCFTA framework.
Efforts to remove non-tariff barriers, improve logistics corridors, and stabilize exchange rates are expected to further enhance competitiveness and reduce reliance on distant markets.
Despite currency pressures and structural bottlenecks, the strong rebound in Nigeria’s trade with African countries underscores the resilience of the continent’s economic integration and Nigeria’s enduring role as one of Africa’s key export powerhouses.
