Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy recorded a strong inflow from crude oil exports in the third quarter of 2025, reinforcing the sector’s continued dominance in the country’s foreign exchange earnings despite ongoing efforts to diversify the export base.
Fresh data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the Federal Government earned ₦12.81 trillion from crude oil exports between July and September 2025, reflecting a modest recovery from the previous quarter even as year-on-year figures showed a slight decline.
The latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics paints a picture of an economy still heavily tied to hydrocarbons, with crude oil remaining Nigeria’s single most valuable export commodity amid fluctuating global oil prices and domestic production challenges.
FG earns ₦12.81tn from crude oil exports in Q3
According to the NBS report, crude oil exports accounted for 56.14 per cent of Nigeria’s total export value in the third quarter of 2025, underscoring the petroleum sector’s central role in sustaining government revenue and external trade.
While the ₦12.81 trillion earned represented a 4.47 per cent drop compared with the ₦13.41 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, the figure marked a notable improvement from the ₦11.97 trillion generated in the second quarter of 2025.
This quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.03 per cent suggests a rebound in export receipts, largely driven by improved shipment volumes and relatively stable international demand.
Analysts say the increase reinforces crude oil’s position as Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange, especially at a time when non-oil exports continue to underperform due to structural bottlenecks and weak global demand.
Beyond crude oil alone, exports of mineral products — which include petroleum gases and other oil-related commodities — were valued at ₦20.01 trillion in Q3 2025.
This represented a staggering 87.71 per cent of total exports, further highlighting the economy’s deep reliance on extractive resources.
Other oil-related exports were valued at ₦7.01 trillion during the quarter, a sharp 51.72 per cent increase from ₦4.62 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.
However, this figure was 9.42 per cent lower than the ₦7.74 trillion posted in the second quarter, indicating some volatility within the oil and gas export segment.
Overall trade performance during the quarter also reflected the weight of crude oil in Nigeria’s external transactions.
Total merchandise trade stood at ₦38.94 trillion in Q3 2025, representing an 8.71 per cent increase compared with the same period last year and a 2.36 per cent rise from the previous quarter.
Exports accounted for ₦22.81 trillion, or 58.59 per cent of total trade, while imports were valued at ₦16.12 trillion, making up the remaining 41.41 per cent.
Despite maintaining a trade surplus of ₦6.69 trillion, the balance declined by 10.36 per cent from the second quarter, reflecting rising import bills and softer export growth.
In addition to crude oil, other petroleum-related products played a key role in supporting export earnings.
Natural gas, petroleum gases in gaseous form, and refined petroleum products such as kerosene-type jet fuel ranked among Nigeria’s top export items.
These products helped cushion the impact of weaker performance in other sectors, particularly agriculture and manufacturing.
Regional trade data further underscored Nigeria’s role as a major energy supplier, especially within Africa and the ECOWAS sub-region.
Exports to Africa were valued at ₦4.90 trillion in Q3 2025, compared with imports of just ₦595 billion, resulting in a significant trade surplus.
Crude petroleum oils alone accounted for ₦1.94 trillion of Nigeria’s exports to Africa, representing 39.57 per cent of total shipments to the continent.
Motor spirit followed with exports valued at ₦707.05 billion, while gas oil exports stood at ₦692.08 billion.
Within ECOWAS, crude oil exports were valued at ₦1.32 trillion, making up 42.14 per cent of total exports to the sub-region.
This further cemented Nigeria’s status as West Africa’s leading energy supplier, particularly to neighbouring countries reliant on imported petroleum products.
On the global stage, Europe remained Nigeria’s largest export destination during the quarter, receiving goods worth ₦8.71 trillion, or 38.16 per cent of total exports.
Asia followed closely with ₦6.40 trillion, accounting for 28.07 per cent, while Africa ranked third with 21.49 per cent of total export value.
India emerged as Nigeria’s top single export destination in Q3 2025, importing goods valued at ₦2.26 trillion, largely crude oil.
Spain followed with ₦1.83 trillion, while France, the Netherlands, and Italy imported ₦1.66 trillion, ₦1.54 trillion, and ₦1.46 trillion respectively. Collectively, these five countries accounted for over 38 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports.
Despite the impressive oil figures, the NBS data revealed persistent weaknesses in non-oil exports. Agricultural exports declined by 11.69 per cent year-on-year to ₦786.62 billion, while manufactured goods exports fell by 6.03 per cent to ₦978.53 billion.
These declines underscore long-standing challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, limited access to finance, and poor competitiveness in global markets.
Economists warn that while the rise in crude oil earnings provides short-term fiscal relief, Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil exports leaves the economy vulnerable to global price shocks and production disruptions.
They stress the need for sustained investment in agriculture, manufacturing, and services to achieve a more balanced and resilient trade structure.
As Nigeria continues to navigate economic reforms and foreign exchange pressures, the Q3 2025 trade figures serve as a reminder that crude oil remains both a lifeline and a vulnerability for the country’s economy.
