Nigeria imports US crude despite exporting over 300 million barrels of oil
Nigeria imported approximately 61.7 million barrels of crude oil from the United States between January 2024 and January 2026, despite exporting more than 300 million barrels of crude oil in 2025 alone, exposing a structural imbalance in Africa’s largest oil economy.
The development highlights a growing paradox: Nigeria imports US crude despite exporting oil at scale, raising questions over crude allocation, refinery readiness, and foreign exchange efficiency.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) show that the trend accelerated following the start of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which significantly increased domestic demand for crude feedstock.
US crude imports rise despite strong domestic production
Before 2024, US crude exports to Nigeria were negligible, with only limited shipments recorded in 2016. However, the trade pattern changed sharply as Nigeria expanded domestic refining capacity.
In 2024, Nigeria imported about 15.7 million barrels of US crude, with monthly inflows ranging between 35,000 and 132,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Imports surged further in 2025, reaching 41.06 million barrels, driven by peak inflows of 305,000 bpd in June 2025, equivalent to about 9.15 million barrels in a single month.
By January 2026, imports remained elevated at 159,000 bpd, or 4.93 million barrels, showing sustained reliance on imported crude.
Overall, Nigeria imported 61.7 million barrels of US crude despite exporting oil at record levels during the same period.
Exports remain strong, deepening structural imbalance
CBN data shows Nigeria produced approximately 443.5 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, of which 306.7 million barrels (about 69%) were exported.
This export-heavy structure continues despite rising domestic refining demand.
In early 2026, the trend persisted. Nigeria exported 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February, even as local refiners reported feedstock shortages.
Total production for the two months stood at 81.94 million barrels, with only 26.55 million barrels retained for domestic use.
An energy economist in Lagos described the situation as a structural inefficiency rather than a production failure.
“Nigeria imports US crude despite exporting oil because the system is not optimised for domestic refining,” the economist said.
“Export obligations, infrastructure gaps, and allocation inefficiencies are creating an artificial domestic shortage.”
Dangote refinery reshapes crude demand dynamics
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become the central force reshaping Nigeria’s crude market.
The facility requires an estimated over 19 million barrels per month to operate at optimal capacity, significantly higher than what is consistently available domestically.
A senior energy analyst said the refinery has exposed long-standing weaknesses in Nigeria’s upstream-to-downstream coordination.
“The system was designed for export-led revenue, not large-scale domestic refining,” the analyst said.
“Now that domestic demand has increased, supply allocation mechanisms are under pressure.”
Related: Strait of Hormuz open as Iran warns US blockade could trigger fresh closure
Read Also: Wellington floods leave man missing as dog rescues one after record rain in New Zealand
JAMB breaks silence, denies reports of UTME candidates in Benue abduction
NNPC acknowledges allocation pressure
A senior official at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) said the country is still adjusting to a dual demand system.
“Nigeria still operates within a framework that prioritises export revenue stability,” the official said.
“But domestic refining demand is increasing rapidly, and allocation systems are being reviewed to reflect that shift.”
The official noted that crude distribution remains constrained by production levels, export commitments, and logistics bottlenecks.
FX impact: circular oil trade raises efficiency concerns
Economists warn that Nigeria’s position—exporting crude while importing crude—creates a circular foreign exchange exposure loop.
While crude exports generate FX inflows, imports of crude for domestic refining create offsetting FX outflows.
At an estimated average price range of $70–$85 per barrel, Nigeria’s import volume of 61.7 million barrels represents a gross exposure of approximately $4.3 billion to $5.2 billion over the period.
A financial analyst said this reduces net FX efficiency.
“Nigeria is earning dollars from crude exports and spending a portion of those same dollars on crude imports,” the analyst said.
“This weakens net FX retention and increases vulnerability to global price shocks.”
Modular refineries also affected
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said several modular refineries have experienced intermittent shutdowns due to inconsistent crude allocation.
Operators argue that domestic refiners still face supply uncertainty despite policy commitments to support local refining.
Structural contradiction persists
Nigeria now faces a structural contradiction: it is a major crude exporter that simultaneously imports crude to sustain domestic refining.
While the Dangote refinery represents a major step toward energy self-sufficiency, its dependence on imported crude highlights unresolved upstream production and allocation challenges.
Until supply stability improves and crude distribution frameworks are rebalanced, analysts expect Nigeria to continue operating a dual-cycle oil economy—exporting crude for revenue while importing crude to refine at home.
Read more at ireport247news
About The Author
