Nigeria Fertility Rate drops to 4.8 as NDHS 2024 reveals major population changes, better family planning, and improved maternal and child health outcomes.
The Nigeria Fertility Rate has dropped significantly, signaling a major demographic shift across the country.
According to the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), Nigeria’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 5.3 children per woman in 2018 to 4.8 in 2024, reflecting gradual improvements in health access, education, and reproductive awareness.
Unveiling the report in Abuja, the Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare, Dr. Iziaq Salako, said the steady decline in fertility represents measurable gains from government efforts to expand family planning in Nigeria.
He noted that more Nigerian women are now using modern contraceptives and making informed decisions about reproductive health, helping to control population growth in Nigeria.
According to the Minister, modern contraceptive use among married women increased from 12 percent in 2018 to 15 percent in 2023, while satisfied demand for family planning rose from 31 to 37 percent. “This shows that progress is being made, but we must sustain the momentum,” Salako said.
The NDHS 2024 report revealed that while fertility is declining, health indicators remain mixed. Antenatal coverage rose to 63 percent, skilled birth attendance improved to 46 percent, and postnatal care within two days after delivery increased from 38 percent in 2018 to 42 percent in 2024.
On child survival, the under-five mortality rate fell from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 110 in 2024, demonstrating visible progress in child health.
However, neonatal mortality remained stubbornly high, rising slightly from 39 to 41 deaths per 1,000 live births.
“Neonatal deaths now account for about 40 to 45 percent of all under-five deaths, and we must intensify efforts to reverse that,” Salako warned.
He added that the Nigeria Fertility Rate decline is linked to broader social factors such as improved girls’ education, delayed marriage, and urbanization — all of which contribute to smaller, healthier families.
Dr. Salako announced that the Ministry of Health is already using the NDHS 2024 data to guide national health reforms.
Key initiatives such as the Maternal and Maternal Mortality Reduction Initiative and the Nigerian Child Survivor Act (2023–2025) are part of an integrated strategy to address maternal and neonatal challenges.
He emphasized that these programs would help states identify regions with the greatest need for family planning and maternal care services.
“The findings provide a roadmap for evidence-based policymaking and targeted interventions,” the minister said.
Salako further urged stakeholders to continue promoting awareness on family planning in Nigeria to sustain the ongoing fertility transition and ensure equitable access to reproductive health services nationwide.
Speaking at the launch, Hon. Nasir Isa Kwarra, Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), described the NDHS as a cornerstone for understanding Nigeria’s demographic trends.
He said the survey, implemented by the NPC with oversight from the Ministry of Health and support from international partners, reaffirms the value of collaboration in data-driven governance.
“Data is not just numbers—it’s a public good that drives national planning,” Kwarra said.
“The Nigeria Fertility Rate findings will help guide education, healthcare, and economic policy for sustainable development.”
He noted that the NDHS data would also support the forthcoming population census and contribute to better resource allocation across regions.
In her remarks, Dr. Ritgak Tilly-Gyado, Senior Health Specialist at the World Bank, commended Nigeria for the successful implementation of the NDHS 2024.
She said the data would inform global and national policy modelling in health, education, and nutrition.
According to her, the decline in the Nigeria Fertility Rate is a positive signal that Nigeria is entering a new phase of demographic transition.
“When fertility rates decline, countries experience more sustainable population growth, improved economic productivity, and greater empowerment for women,” she said.
Experts say the latest NDHS findings position Nigeria at the threshold of a demographic transition—a period when fertility declines and the working-age population expands faster than dependents.
This creates potential for economic growth and poverty reduction if supported by investment in health, education, and employment.
The NDHS 2024 Report also underscores the importance of maintaining progress through sustained family planning campaigns, health system strengthening, and women’s empowerment initiatives.
As Nigeria works toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), analysts believe that the steady decline in the Nigeria Fertility Rate could become a defining factor in shaping the nation’s future—promoting stability, prosperity, and a healthier, more educated population.
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