Naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026, says Dangote as reforms gather pace
Africa’s richest industrialist, Aliko Dangote, has projected a sharp appreciation of Nigeria’s currency, stating that the naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026 if current economic reforms and import-substitution policies are sustained.
Dangote made the remarks in Abuja during the launch of Nigeria’s new industrial policy framework, an event attended by senior government officials including Vice President Kashim Shettima.
His comments come at a time when the naira is trading around ₦1,300–₦1,400 per dollar across official and parallel markets, marking one of its strongest stretches in over two years.
Speaking to policymakers and business leaders, Dangote expressed confidence that structural reforms introduced by the Federal Government are beginning to yield tangible results, particularly for manufacturers who rely heavily on foreign exchange stability.
Reform momentum and currency outlook
Dangote argued that consistent policy direction — including efforts to curb excessive imports and boost domestic production — could support foreign exchange inflows and reduce pressure on the currency market.
According to him, if Nigeria significantly cuts non-essential imports while strengthening local production capacity, the naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026.
He, however, described the situation as a “delicate balance,” noting that a stronger naira would reduce the local currency value of government dollar revenues. Yet, he maintained that long-term economic stability outweighs short-term fiscal considerations.
“A stronger currency will lower costs across the economy,” Dangote said, adding that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imports has historically weakened the naira during periods of foreign exchange scarcity.
Industrialisation as a stabilising force
Dangote’s forecast aligns with his longstanding advocacy for industrialisation as a pathway to economic resilience.
He emphasised that sustainable currency strength depends on Nigeria producing more of what it consumes, particularly refined petroleum products, fertiliser, cement, and other essential goods.
The industrialist’s optimism is partly tied to the operational scale-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
The refinery is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, a major source of foreign exchange demand.
Market analysts say that if domestic refining meets a substantial portion of national fuel needs, pressure on the dollar could ease considerably.
That development alone could support Dangote’s assertion that the naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026, especially if complemented by improved oil production and diversified exports.
Market signals and investor confidence
Recent performance in Nigeria’s equities market has also contributed to growing optimism.
According to data reported by Bloomberg, Nigerian stocks have delivered some of the strongest dollar-denominated returns globally this year, reflecting renewed investor interest.
The rebound follows a turbulent period marked by sharp currency devaluation and capital outflows in 2024. Total market capitalisation on the Lagos Exchange has climbed significantly, signalling stronger sentiment among both domestic and foreign investors.
Business magnate Femi Otedola has similarly expressed confidence in the naira’s medium-term prospects, previously predicting that the currency could trade below ₦1,000 per dollar before the end of 2026 if structural energy reforms remain on track.
Policy support and infrastructure gaps
While Dangote’s projection has drawn attention, he stressed that currency gains must be supported by consistent government policies, improved infrastructure, and targeted incentives for local investors.
Power supply remains a major bottleneck for industrial expansion, raising production costs and affecting competitiveness.
He urged policymakers to ensure that industrial policy is backed by reliable electricity, efficient logistics networks, and stable regulatory frameworks.
Without these enablers, he warned, gains in foreign exchange stability could prove temporary.
Economists note that Nigeria’s exchange rate trajectory will also depend on external factors such as global oil prices, capital flows, and monetary policy adjustments. However, domestic reforms — particularly those targeting revenue diversification and fiscal discipline — will likely play a decisive role.
A cautious optimism
Despite current exchange rate improvements, analysts caution that achieving ₦1,100 per dollar would require sustained inflows, improved oil output, and disciplined fiscal management.
Still, Dangote’s statement that the naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026 reflects growing confidence among sections of Nigeria’s business community.
For manufacturers and import-dependent businesses, currency appreciation would lower input costs and potentially ease inflationary pressures.
For consumers, it could translate into reduced prices of imported goods and services.
Ultimately, whether the naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026 will depend on the durability of reforms, progress in industrial expansion, and Nigeria’s ability to balance fiscal needs with macroeconomic stability.
As policymakers push forward with structural changes, the currency’s performance will remain a key barometer of economic recovery and investor trust.
