The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has released its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, outlining significant variations in rainfall patterns, dry spells, and temperature conditions across Nigeria.
The forecast, unveiled at the annual climate outlook event, is expected to guide farmers, policymakers, emergency responders and other climate-sensitive sectors as the country approaches the new rainy and agricultural season.
According to the forecast, several southern and central states are likely to experience an early onset of rainfall, while parts of the northeast may see delayed rains.
However, the agency cautioned that rainfall already observed in some locations should not be mistaken for the actual commencement of the rainy season, describing such occurrences as “false rains.”
States projected to experience an early onset include Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa and Oyo.
Parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba States are also expected to receive rainfall earlier than usual.
In contrast, Borno State is predicted to record a late start to the season, a development that could affect farming schedules and water availability in the area.
Speaking at the presentation of the seasonal climate outlook, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, stressed that recent rainfall in some parts of the country does not automatically signal the start of the rainy season.
He advised farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture to pay close attention to the official onset dates provided in the forecast, rather than acting on isolated rainfall events.
The climate outlook also reveals notable differences in the expected end of the rainy season across the country.
Rainfall cessation is anticipated to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States.
On the other hand, a delayed end to the season is forecast for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States, potentially extending farming activities in those regions.
In terms of duration, the report indicates that the rainy season will last longer than average in several states, including Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba.
Conversely, parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter rainy season, which may increase pressure on farmers and pastoral communities.
Rainfall volume projections suggest that most parts of Nigeria will record normal annual rainfall when compared with long-term averages.
However, above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States and the Federal Capital Territory.
Below-normal rainfall is predicted in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States, raising concerns about possible water stress and reduced crop yields in those areas.
Dry spells remain a major feature of the 2026 outlook. Between March and May, severe dry spells lasting over 15 days are expected in parts of Oyo and Ogun States.
Moderate dry spells may also affect Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River and Delta States.
During the June to August period, even longer dry spells—lasting up to 21 days—are forecast in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara States.
The outlook further highlights the Little Dry Season, commonly known as the August break.
This phenomenon is predicted to begin in late July and may be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States.
In these areas, the number of days with little or no rainfall could range between 28 and 40 days. Ondo State and parts of Kwara and Edo are expected to experience a moderate August break.
Temperature projections show that both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country in January, February, March and May 2026.
This rise in temperature could increase heat stress, evaporation rates and demand for water and energy.
Also speaking at the event, the Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, explained that the agency is strengthening collaboration with government bodies, research institutions and non-governmental organisations to ensure that climate information reaches farmers at the grassroots.
He noted that these partnerships are essential for translating scientific forecasts into practical guidance that local communities can easily understand and apply.
Prof. Anosike added that the agency is accelerating the rollout of digital climate advisory services, working with both local and international partners.
According to him, these efforts are aimed at improving early warning systems, enhancing preparedness, and helping Nigeria better adapt to the growing impacts of climate variability and change.
Ireport247news
