Nigeria’s quest for fuel self-sufficiency has hit a critical junction as new data reveals that domestic production remains insufficient to meet national consumption.
According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the Dangote Refinery supplied only 17.1 million litres of petrol per day in October 2025, far below the country’s daily requirement of 50 million litres.
This shortfall necessitated the importation of 828 million litres of petrol to avert a nationwide fuel shortage.
The figures mark a concerning pattern where Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported fuel, despite the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery in September 2024.
Domestic Supply Falls Short: Dangote Refinery Petrol Supply Challenges
The NMDPRA’s October 2025 fact sheet indicates that the refinery supplied a total of 512.4 million litres of petrol during the month, contrasting sharply with the 1.5 billion litres required to meet national demand.
Even though the Dangote Refinery had projected an output of 35 million litres per day, actual production over the past year has averaged 18.03 million litres daily, barely half of its planned capacity.
The shortfall has forced the Federal Government and marketers to source imported refined products, averaging 27.6 million litres per day.
Consequently, Nigeria’s national petrol consumption rose to 56.74 million litres daily, reflecting a sustained increase in demand.
Government Initiatives and Policy Reversals
In a bid to protect local refineries, the Federal Government had proposed a 15 per cent import duty on refined petrol and diesel in October 2025.
The policy aimed to encourage local production by making imports less attractive.
However, due to concerns over potential supply disruptions and pushback from industry operators, the policy was suspended until the first quarter of 2026.
The government’s reliance on imported fuel underscores the gap between policy aspirations and operational realities, highlighting the persistent challenges in achieving domestic fuel sufficiency.
Dangote Refinery Petrol Supply Output Trends
Analysis of the refinery’s month-by-month performance from September 2024 to October 2025 reveals fluctuating output.
Initial operations began with just three million litres per day, rising to 10 million litres in October 2024, and averaging 9 million litres in November.
Production improved in December 2024 to 9.5 million litres per day and surged to 18 million litres daily by January 2025.
The refinery reached its peak output in February 2025, supplying 25 million litres daily, meeting almost half of the nation’s daily demand.
Subsequent months, however, showed declines: 23 million litres in March, 22 million in April, 18 million in May, 16.5 million in June, and a slight recovery to 19.8 million in July.
By September and October 2025, output stabilized at 17.1 million litres per day.
This performance highlights a persistent gap between projected and actual supply, despite government efforts to boost domestic production.
Industry Perspectives: Balancing Support and Realism
Speaking on the issue, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, emphasized support for Dangote Refinery while noting that domestic production remains insufficient.
“We are not against Dangote at any time. We want the refinery to succeed because it would be the best thing to happen to this country and to Africa,” he said.
“However, the reality is that in-country production cannot fully meet daily fuel demand yet. Every sector of the industry must contribute to the growth of the economy.”
Gillis-Harry also noted that the NMDPRA data validates earlier warnings regarding the potential impact of the proposed 15 per cent import duty on pump prices.
The tariff, if implemented, would have resulted in significant price increases given the continued reliance on imported fuel.
National Petrol Sufficiency Declines
Further data from NMDPRA shows a stark decline in petrol sufficiency.
While Nigeria maintained an average of 20 days of PMS sufficiency between October and December 2024, sufficiency fell to just nine days in October 2025, comprising seven days of inland stock and two days of marine stock.
Diesel and aviation fuel maintained more comfortable sufficiency levels at 38 and 35 days, respectively, highlighting the unevenness of fuel supply across product types.
Outlook for Dangote Refinery Petrol Supply and National Fuel Security
Despite the challenges, Dangote Industries Limited officials have reassured the public of their commitment to meeting national demand.
Anthony Chiejina, Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, stated that the refinery currently loads over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, exceeding national requirements.
While the refinery’s long-term output capacity promises a reduction in import dependency, short-term volatility continues to place pressure on the Federal Government to manage supply stability and avert price shocks.
Analysts argue that a coordinated effort across the industry, including smaller refineries and distribution networks, is crucial to achieving sustainable fuel security.
The Dangote Refinery petrol supply remains a critical factor in Nigeria’s drive for energy independence.
While the refinery has the potential to meet and even exceed domestic fuel needs, actual performance has consistently lagged behind projections.
The October 2025 data revealing 828 million litres of imported petrol underscores the urgency of improving domestic production, enhancing supply chain efficiency, and coordinating industry policies to stabilize the downstream market.
As Nigeria seeks to reduce reliance on imports and protect local refineries, a combination of operational improvements, regulatory oversight, and supportive policies will be essential to achieving sustainable fuel sufficiency and mitigating future supply shocks.
