Foreign nationals sex crimes figures are being significantly overestimated by the British public, according to new research from King’s College London, with respondents estimating that foreign nationals account for twice the actual proportion of sexual offences.
The study found that people surveyed believed foreign nationals were responsible for around 30 per cent of sexual offences, while official figures put the proportion at approximately 15 per cent.
The findings form part of a wider research project examining how accurately Britons understand crime and why perceptions can differ so dramatically from available evidence.
Researchers found that misconceptions extended well beyond sexual offences, with the public also getting key questions about burglary, vehicle theft, mobile phone theft, murder, offender backgrounds and prison populations wrong.
Britons misjudge foreign nationals’ share of crime
The research, based on surveys involving 1,797 and 2,164 UK adults, found widespread misunderstandings about crime trends and the characteristics of offenders.
Respondents estimated that foreign nationals represented about 25 per cent of the UK’s prison population, while the actual figure was around 15 per cent.
The gap was even more striking when respondents were asked about sexual offences.
The public estimate of 30 per cent was roughly double the 15 per cent figure cited in the research.
The findings do not suggest that crime concerns are imaginary. Instead, researchers argue that people’s perceptions of the scale and direction of crime can be heavily influenced by emotion, media coverage and political debate.
Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said the research showed that people were “very wrong about crime”.
Crime perceptions differ from reality
The study found that several categories of crime have declined, despite many people believing they have increased.
Rates of mobile phone theft, domestic burglary, vehicle theft and murder have all fallen, according to the research.
Yet respondents frequently believed that crime was becoming more widespread.
Duffy said people often believe “everything is getting worse” even when important measures show improvement.
He also noted that respondents believed police numbers had fallen when, according to the research, they had actually increased.
The findings suggest that perceptions of crime cannot always be explained simply by people’s access to statistics.
Why do people overestimate crime?
Researchers behind the study believe several factors contribute to the gap between perception and reality.
Duffy described the problem as an interaction between “how we think and what we’re told”.
One factor is what psychologists call negativity bias — the tendency for people to pay greater attention to threats, danger and negative events.
Duffy also pointed to people’s tendency to view the past more positively, creating the impression that society was safer previously.
“When people respond with an inflated measure of crime, they aren’t just trying to estimate a reality,” he said, explaining that their answers can also reflect what worries them.
This means that perceptions of crime can become intertwined with broader concerns about immigration, diversity, policing and social change.
Media coverage can shape public perception
The researchers also highlighted the role of news and social media in shaping people’s understanding of crime.
Duffy referred to the familiar journalism principle that “if it bleeds, it leads”, arguing that frightening and violent incidents can receive disproportionate attention.
Individual crimes can therefore become highly memorable even when they represent a relatively small proportion of overall crime.
Social media can intensify the effect because dramatic incidents can spread rapidly and repeatedly appear in people’s feeds.
Political debate can add another layer, particularly when crime becomes linked to immigration or other controversial issues.
The result can be a perception of widespread criminality that does not accurately reflect broader crime statistics.
Reform UK supporters showed biggest misconceptions
The research found significant differences between political groups.
According to the study, Reform UK supporters were consistently among the groups most likely to give inaccurate answers about crime figures.
The differences were particularly pronounced when respondents were asked about the ethnicity and nationality of people convicted of serious offences.
Duffy said Reform supporters were especially likely to be wrong about connections between crime, immigration and diversity.
For example, he said Reform supporters believed ethnic minorities accounted for 70 per cent of people convicted of homicide, compared with about half that proportion in reality.
The finding illustrates how crime perceptions can become connected to wider political and cultural debates.
However, the researchers’ broader argument is that misconceptions are not restricted to one issue or one type of crime.
Misconceptions influence attitudes toward justice
The study also found that people who held stronger misconceptions about crime were more likely to believe there was “two-tier justice” in Britain.
They were also more sceptical about the government’s ability to tackle crime and more supportive of tougher punishment.
The King’s College London research ultimately presents a more complicated picture of Britain’s crime debate.
This suggests that inaccurate perceptions can have consequences beyond individual opinions.
If people believe crime is increasing when it is actually declining, or significantly overestimate the proportion of offences committed by particular groups, those beliefs can influence public demands for policing, sentencing and immigration policies.
The researchers therefore argue that improving public understanding of crime is important for the quality of political debate.
Researchers warn against simplistic fact-checking
Despite the scale of the misconceptions, Duffy warned that simply presenting people with statistics may not be enough to change their minds.
He said there were “no easy fixes” and argued that “simple myth-busting” would not solve the problem by itself.
According to the researcher, people’s beliefs are influenced not only by information but also by identity, emotion, social media, news coverage and political incentives.
“This is rooted in our psychology,” Duffy said, while also stressing that this should not become an argument for abandoning factual information.
He said it “really matters” that misconceptions are recognised and that society improves how it communicates the reality of crime.
What the study means for Britain’s crime debate
The research arrives amid intense political debate over crime, immigration, policing and the UK’s criminal justice system.
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Its findings suggest that public concern about crime cannot always be measured simply by asking people how dangerous they believe the country has become.
There can be a substantial gap between perceived risk and recorded trends.
The findings on sexual offences in Britain are particularly significant because the public estimate of foreign nationals’ involvement was approximately twice the figure cited in the research.
At the same time, the study shows that misconceptions extend across multiple areas of crime.
People were not only mistaken about the nationality of offenders but also about whether crime was increasing, how many people were being victimised and whether police numbers were rising or falling.
Facts remain important despite public fears
The researchers do not argue that concerns about crime should be dismissed.
Instead, their findings highlight the importance of separating genuine concerns from assumptions that are not supported by evidence.
Crime can have devastating consequences for victims regardless of whether national crime rates are rising or falling.
But understanding the broader picture is essential when governments, political parties and the public debate how best to respond.
It suggests that perceptions are shaped by far more than statistics, while also warning that inaccurate beliefs can influence political attitudes and policy demands.
As Duffy put it, “that’s not a reason to give up on the facts”.
The challenge, researchers argue, is finding better ways to communicate those facts in a political and media environment where fear, emotion and dramatic incidents can easily dominate public attention.
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