Nigeria’s oil sector is undergoing a structural transformation, with new data revealing a significant shift in trade patterns driven by domestic refining activities. Despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, the country recorded substantial crude imports in 2025, reflecting ongoing supply and policy challenges within the energy value chain.
Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025 – CBN
Fresh disclosures show that Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025, underscoring the evolving dynamics of Nigeria’s oil industry as local refining capacity expands.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the imports were directly linked to operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, marking a major shift in how crude is sourced for domestic processing.
The development highlights a paradox within Nigeria’s oil economy—while the country exports crude oil globally, domestic refineries still rely heavily on imported feedstock to sustain operations.
Current account surplus narrows despite strong trade flows
The report shows that Nigeria maintained a current account surplus of $14.04bn in 2025. Although this represents a decline from $19.03bn in 2024, it remains significantly higher than the $6.42bn recorded in 2023, indicating underlying resilience in external balances.
Analysts note that the fact that Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025 contributed to shifts in the current account structure, particularly within the goods and oil trade segments.
Crude oil exports declined by 14.41 per cent to $31.54bn in 2025 from $36.85bn in the previous year. This drop reflects both global market conditions and adjustments in domestic supply allocation to support refining activities.
However, the goods account remained positive, rising to $14.51bn from $13.17bn in 2024. This was largely driven by increased exports of refined petroleum products, signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.
Refinery operations reshape Nigeria’s oil trade balance
A key highlight of the report is the surge in refined product exports. The Dangote refinery alone accounted for $5.85bn worth of refined petroleum exports in 2025, demonstrating its increasing role in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
As Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025, the refinery’s output also contributed to a sharp decline in fuel imports. Refined petroleum imports dropped by 28.88 per cent to $10bn in 2025, compared to $14.06bn in 2024.
This shift suggests that while crude imports are rising, the country is gradually achieving self-sufficiency in refined product supply—a long-standing policy objective.
Industry stakeholders say the transition represents a rebalancing of Nigeria’s oil trade, where the focus is shifting from exporting raw crude to exporting value-added refined products.
Naira-for-crude policy faces scrutiny
Despite the gains, the continued reliance on imported crude has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.
Energy analysts argue that the fact that Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025 points to persistent challenges in domestic crude supply allocation.
According to industry expert Jeremiah Olatide, a significant proportion of feedstock used by local refineries still comes from international sources. He estimates that the Dangote refinery sources between 65 and 70 per cent of its crude from abroad, while modular refineries rely even more heavily on imports.
This situation suggests that the policy has yet to achieve its intended objective of prioritising local crude supply for domestic refining.
Rising imports beyond oil sector
Further complicating the external balance is the increase in non-oil imports, which rose by 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn in 2025. This reflects sustained demand for foreign goods and highlights the broader structural challenges facing Nigeria’s economy.
Additionally, services-related outflows increased to $14.58bn, driven by higher spending on transport, travel, and insurance. The primary income account also recorded a sharp rise in outflows, climbing 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn due to increased dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
These factors collectively placed pressure on the current account, even as the country continued to record a surplus.
Financial account shifts signal changing investor behaviour
On the financial account side, Nigeria recorded a net borrowing position of $1.69bn in 2025, a reversal from the $9.65bn net lending position in 2024.
Portfolio investment inflows declined significantly by 48.3 per cent to $8.04bn, indicating reduced short-term investor appetite. In contrast, foreign direct investment rose to $4.01bn from $1.61bn, suggesting a gradual shift towards more stable, long-term capital inflows.
Experts say that while the fact that Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025 reflects structural adjustments in the oil sector, broader investor sentiment remains influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy clarity.
External reserves strengthen despite pressures
Despite the various pressures, Nigeria’s overall balance of payments remained positive at $4.23bn in 2025, although lower than the $6.83bn recorded in 2024.
External reserves also improved, rising to $45.75bn by the end of December 2025, representing a 13.83 per cent increase year-on-year. This growth was supported by inflows from oil exports, refined product sales, and other external sources.
The increase in reserves provides a buffer against external shocks and enhances the country’s ability to manage exchange rate volatility.
Pricing concerns persist despite improved supply
While the expansion of refining capacity has improved product availability, it has not yet translated into lower fuel prices for consumers.
Industry observers note that pricing continues to be influenced by international benchmarks, meaning that even locally refined products are subject to global market dynamics.
This explains why, despite the development that Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025, petrol prices have remained relatively high at both depot and retail levels.
Outlook for Nigeria’s oil sector
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s oil sector is expected to continue evolving as domestic refining capacity expands and policy frameworks are refined.
The shift highlighted by Dangote imported $3.74bn crude in 2025 signals a transition phase in which the country is moving towards greater value addition within its oil industry.
However, achieving full efficiency will require addressing supply constraints, improving policy implementation, and ensuring that local refining translates into tangible economic benefits for consumers.
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