Donald Trump’s recent remarks on Ukraine have brought both relief and disappointment to Kyiv. On Monday, the US president announced that he has permitted NATO’s other members to buy American arms, including the urgently needed Patriot interceptor missiles and batteries that fire them.
This decision comes as a welcome respite for Ukraine, which has been facing a nightly barrage of Russian ballistic missiles. According to Trump, there are 17 Patriot missile systems “hanging around to spare” in one NATO nation, which could potentially be shipped to Ukraine.
The supply of Patriot missiles is exactly what Ukraine needs to defend itself against Russia’s aerial attacks. “The nightly barrage of Russian ballistic missiles can only be stopped by US Patriot missiles, and only the White House can authorize their supply,” writes CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh. Ukraine was short of these and other sophisticated American weapons, which may not have been referenced by name but could be included in the deal. This move provides short-term, vital relief to Ukraine.
However, the lack of immediate secondary sanctions against customers of Russian energy has left Ukraine feeling disappointed. The scope of sanctions proposed by a bill in the US Senate, potentially 500% on all trade with those who buy Russian hydrocarbons, would have been devastating.
Such sanctions would have hit China and India, the US’s main rival and key ally, respectively, at a time when oil prices are low but trade turmoil is high. The damage to energy markets would have been significant, and the US would also have been impacted by likely higher oil prices.
Trump’s decision comes with a 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a peace deal, giving Vladimir Putin until September to change his stance or for the Russian president’s rumored summer offensive to alter the battlefield reality.
This deadline shows that Trump still believes the Kremlin wants peace and can be persuaded into it, a notion that has been met with skepticism. “We’ve been here before, and Putin has let the ticking clock whizz past his ear,” notes Walsh.
Trump’s Ukraine policy retains key elements from its past, including a desire for others to foot the bill and deadlines for action rather than immediate consequences for inaction.
No new American money is going to Ukraine, and there is no public indication of new capabilities being delivered. While Trump’s tone has changed, his policy remains largely the same. Kyiv will be relieved immediately but may soon feel a familiar sense of disappointment.
In a statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had spoken to Trump and “thanked him for his readiness to support Ukraine and to continue working together to stop the killings and establish a lasting and just peace.” Zelensky also held talks with Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg on Monday. The US president’s shift in tone may be seen as a positive development, but the lack of stricter sanctions against Russia has left many wondering about the effectiveness of the US’s approach.
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