The Federal Government has issued a stern warning against future delays in the computation and release of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, emphasizing the critical importance of timely economic data for effective policymaking, budget forecasting, and international credibility.
Speaking during a high-level webinar hosted by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr. Tope Fasua, described the recent rebasing of the GDP as a long-overdue corrective measure that provides a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s economic realities. However, he noted that the update, while necessary, is insufficient if it is not followed by structural reforms and transparent economic management.
The rebased GDP, which captures previously underrepresented sectors like digital services, e-commerce, modular refining, and informal trade, suggests that the actual size of Nigeria’s economy could be well over N500 trillion, a significant jump from earlier estimates.
Fasua explained, “We’re now accounting for fast-growing areas like digital content creation, YouTube monetisation, tech services, and blue economy ventures. This more comprehensive data positions us more favorably for investment and policy design.”
He also pointed out that the new GDP size reduces Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio to around 40%, compared to the ECOWAS limit of 60% and the World Bank ceiling of 70%, thus expanding fiscal flexibility and giving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) room to adjust interest rates to stimulate industrial activity.
Despite the statistical progress, economic experts at the NESG webinar, including Yinka Babalola of the International Budget Partnership and Dr. Ekundayo Mesagan of Pan-Atlantic University, cautioned that increased GDP figures don’t automatically translate into improved living conditions for Nigerians.
Babalola remarked: “Higher GDP numbers don’t lower food prices, improve access to healthcare, or create jobs. GDP is just one metric. Without tax reforms, expenditure efficiency, and social inclusion, people won’t feel the impact.”
She stressed the urgent need for stronger revenue mobilisation, targeted spending, and inclusive budgeting processes, noting that many public agencies still underutilise their budgets due to weak project execution capacity. According to her, unless this is corrected, budgetary increases or economic rebasing will mean little to citizens on the ground.
Fasua and other speakers agreed on the need for enhanced collaboration among Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) in data collection, analysis, and dissemination. Delays in GDP release — the last rebasing exercise was in 2014 — were described as “costly lapses” that hurt planning and weaken Nigeria’s reputation with development partners and investors.
“Timely and accurate data is the backbone of responsible economic governance. We must treat data infrastructure as a national priority,” Fasua said.
Mesagan, meanwhile, welcomed the new figures as a technical improvement that now places Nigeria’s per capita income at around $1,000, up from $800 — a move that could help the country qualify for better financing terms in global capital markets. However, he was quick to clarify that this does not reflect an actual improvement in purchasing power or quality of life.
He proposed a more bottom-up approach to economic development, recommending expanded support for small-scale enterprises, women-led businesses, and the informal sector, where job creation and income growth are more immediate.
The panel also welcomed recent tax reforms exempting businesses earning below N50 million annually from company income tax, describing it as a step toward encouraging entrepreneurship and supporting micro-enterprises. However, they emphasized that:
Tax policy must remain progressive, focusing on high-income earners and profitable corporations.
Leakages via tax waivers and incentives must be curbed to prevent revenue losses.
Social spending must be better targeted using poverty maps and improved data tools.
According to Mesagan, better statistical insights should drive real-world poverty reduction, not just improved global rankings. “GDP growth without poverty reduction is simply a vanity metric,” he stated.
While the GDP rebasing exercise is a welcome development, the consensus at the NESG event was that its impact will remain superficial unless used to catalyze real reform. Accurate data should guide smarter borrowing, more inclusive growth strategies, and responsive fiscal policy.
As Nigeria navigates its post-rebasing fiscal strategy, experts are urging the government not to treat the bigger GDP figure as political capital, but as a foundation to restructure budgetary priorities, foster inclusive growth, and rebuild citizen trust in public institutions.
The Federal Government has pledged to institutionalize a 5-year rebasing cycle and improve inter-agency coordination on economic data — a promise many stakeholders hope will be fulfilled before the next rebasing milestone in 2030.