The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has released its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction, forecasting that Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom states will experience the highest number of rainy days in 2025, ranging between 250 and 290 days. The agency’s report, which was made public on Monday, sheds light on the expected weather patterns across the country, offering insights into how different regions will experience rainfall and dry spells throughout the year.
According to NiMet, these states in the southern and coastal regions are expected to record the highest rainfall totals, with Lagos, Delta, and the other mentioned states seeing up to 290 rainy days. This forecast suggests a prolonged rainy season, which is likely to impact daily activities, agriculture, and infrastructure development. These coastal states will also experience the most significant total annual rainfall, ranging from 2,700 mm to 3,010 mm. This is in stark contrast to the dry conditions expected in northern parts of Nigeria, where rainfall is predicted to be much lower.
In addition to these states, the report indicates that several other areas, including Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu, will experience moderate rainfall, with the rainy days falling between 200 and 250 days. This indicates a relatively wet year for these regions, although the number of rainy days will not reach the extremes of the southern coastal states.
Meanwhile, the northern states, such as Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno, are expected to see fewer rainy days, with forecasts ranging from 110 to 150 rainy days in the year. The far northern regions, in particular, will face drier conditions, with total annual rainfall amounts predicted to be as low as 405 mm. This is significantly less than the rainfall expected in southern regions, highlighting the stark climatic divide across the country.
The central region, including states like Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), is projected to experience rainfall between 150 and 200 days, with annual totals ranging from 970 mm to 1,500 mm. This suggests a moderate rainy season in the middle-belt, with rainfall spread across several months.
The onset of the rainy season is forecasted to occur between March and April in southern states, including Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, and Anambra. These areas are likely to experience early rainfall that will last until the end of the year. In the central belt, rainfall is expected to commence between April and May, with states like Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and the FCT receiving their first rains during this period.
For the northern states, the rainy season will begin later, likely between June and July, with delayed rainfall expected in parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, and Kwara states. Early onset of rainfall is expected for coastal states such as Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi states.
The end of the rainy season in Nigeria is predicted to occur between October 6 and December 17. For northern states, rainfall cessation will start in early October, gradually progressing southward. The central states will experience the end of the rainy season from November 7 to November 23, while the southern coastal regions are expected to see the end of the season between November 23 and December 17.
In terms of dry spells, NiMet has warned of prolonged dry periods, especially in southern states like Oyo, where severe dry spells lasting up to 15 days are predicted. Other states such as Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom may face moderate dry spells lasting up to 15 days. In the northern states, severe dry spells of up to 21 days are forecasted during the peak rainy season (June to August), which could lead to agricultural challenges and water shortages in some areas.
Implications for Agriculture and Infrastructure
This weather forecast is expected to have significant implications for Nigeria’s agriculture sector, especially in the southern and central regions, where farmers will need to prepare for excessive rainfall. Farmers in the north, on the other hand, may face challenges due to the shorter rainy season and lower total rainfall, which could lead to drought conditions in some parts.
The extended rainy season in the southern states may also strain infrastructure, leading to flooding and erosion, particularly in coastal regions that are already vulnerable to such events. Governments at both the state and federal levels will need to take proactive measures to mitigate the risks posed by heavy rainfall and ensure that flood control mechanisms are in place.
NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction highlights the disparities in rainfall patterns across Nigeria, with southern and coastal states set to experience a prolonged rainy season, while northern states are expected to face drier conditions. Stakeholders in agriculture, infrastructure, and disaster management must prepare for these varying conditions to mitigate the potential impacts on livelihoods, property, and the economy.