Poland has formally accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating a massive fire that nearly destroyed a shopping centre in Warsaw last year. Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on social media platform X that Poland knows “for sure” the blaze at the Marywilska shopping centre was caused by arson ordered by Russian special services.
“We now know for certain that the large fire at Marywilska was the result of an act of arson ordered by Russian services. The operation was coordinated by a person inside Russia. Some perpetrators are already under arrest, others have been identified and are being pursued. We will catch you all,” Tusk posted.
The fire in May 2024 destroyed approximately 1,400 small businesses, many operated by members of Warsaw’s Vietnamese community. Poland’s year-long investigation concluded the fire was organized by an individual residing in Russia. A joint statement by Poland’s justice and interior ministers emphasized that the actions were “organized and directed by a specific person residing in the Russian Federation”.
Hybrid Warfare
Polish officials characterize these actions as part of a “hybrid war” waged by Moscow, involving anonymous, deniable attacks designed to harm an opponent’s infrastructure and stability without triggering a direct act of war. NATO also believes Russia is actively engaged in hybrid warfare across Europe, aiming to deter Western support for Ukraine.
Impact and Response
The Marywilska shopping centre fire had a significant impact on the community, with many workers losing important documents and personal savings. However, the community showed remarkable resilience, with a temporary shopping centre opening just three months after the fire, allowing approximately 400 traders to resume operations. An alternative shopping centre, Modlinska 6D, was opened in Warsaw in October 2024.
Potential Consequences and Future Trends
The accusations against Russia could lead to further diplomatic tensions, increased sanctions, and a greater focus on defensive measures against hybrid threats. European countries are likely to adopt several countermeasures, including:
- Enhanced Intelligence Sharing: Strengthening cooperation between intelligence agencies to detect and disrupt hybrid warfare operations
- Increased Cybersecurity Measures: Protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks through advanced monitoring and defense systems
- Counter-Disinformation Strategies: Developing robust strategies to identify and combat disinformation campaigns
- Legislative and Legal Frameworks: Creating legal frameworks to prosecute individuals involved in hybrid warfare activities
- Public Awareness Campaigns: Educating the public about the threats of hybrid warfare and how to recognize and respond to disinformation
International Reactions
Lithuania has also accused Russia’s military intelligence service of being behind an arson attack on a branch of Ikea in Vilnius last year. Two Ukrainian suspects were arrested in connection with the incident. Russia has denied repeated allegations by NATO countries that its secret services are engaged in sabotage operations across Europe.