The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recorded a marginal decline in crude oil production in April 2025, according to a Reuters survey, in spite of the group’s recent decision to begin loosening production curbs.
OPEC, comprising 13 member nations, pumped an estimated 26.60 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, reflecting a decrease of 30,000 bpd from March’s output. The slight drop comes as reduced production in Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya offset increased supply from Iran.
The production downturn raises fresh concerns about the balance between market recovery efforts and geopolitical pressures, particularly with the United States intensifying sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports, which led to the cancellation of several cargoes destined for Chevron—a move that directly slashed Venezuela’s contribution to global supply.
Despite the April dip, OPEC+—which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia—had already started phasing out its voluntary output cuts this month. The group has stated its intent to gradually increase production through May and June, citing “supportive market fundamentals” such as reduced global inventories and stabilizing demand.
However, these optimistic projections are tempered by uncertainties surrounding the actions of the U.S. government. Washington’s renewed efforts to limit oil exports from Iran and Venezuela, two OPEC members not bound by production quotas due to sanctions, have added new volatility to global supply dynamics.
Notably, Iran emerged as the largest production gainer in April, boosting its crude oil exports in defiance of U.S. pressure. This significant increase in Iranian output highlights the challenges facing American foreign policy in curbing oil flows from sanctioned nations.
According to the Reuters survey, top producer Saudi Arabia maintained a largely steady output during the month, aligning with its revised quota under the OPEC+ agreement. Fellow Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also recorded minimal changes in output.
While OPEC’s internal data suggests that both Iraq and the UAE are close to meeting their assigned production levels, third-party estimates—particularly from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—indicate that actual production may exceed official targets.
Iraq, facing mounting pressure to improve compliance, slightly reduced its crude output in April, although analysts believe the country still struggles to meet its OPEC+ obligations due to ongoing domestic constraints.
The April figures underscore the complexity of OPEC’s balancing act: attempting to stabilize oil prices while navigating geopolitical risks, compliance issues, and global demand fluctuations. With global oil prices hovering around $83 per barrel, markets are closely monitoring the effectiveness of OPEC+’s production strategy heading into mid-year.
Analysts warn that if geopolitical tensions escalate further or if compliance within the group weakens, the recent output gains could be reversed, sending mixed signals to global investors and impacting oil-dependent economies.
As Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, Nigeria’s economic recovery is heavily tied to stable oil prices and reliable output levels. Though Nigeria was not a central focus in the April production adjustments, any sustained drop in OPEC output could affect its revenue projections and foreign exchange reserves.
The Nigerian government has already based its 2025 budget on a benchmark crude price of $78 per barrel, meaning further price instability could pose significant fiscal risks. Additionally, Nigeria’s compliance with OPEC quotas remains under scrutiny amid recurring production shortfalls and operational challenges in the Niger Delta.
The April report reflects a cautious phase in OPEC’s oil market recalibration. With tensions between production needs and geopolitical realities still playing out, the coming months will be critical in determining whether OPEC+ can maintain market stability while gradually increasing output.