As the Roman Catholic Church prepares for the historic conclave beginning May 7, attention turns to the 135 cardinal electors tasked with choosing the successor to Pope Francis, who died on April 21 at age 88. But unlike conclaves of the past, this one is marked by unprecedented diversity and unfamiliarity—factors that could lead to a protracted and unpredictable vote inside the Sistine Chapel.
Pope Francis’s legacy lives on, not only in his progressive reforms but also in the makeup of the College of Cardinals. Breaking centuries of Eurocentric tradition, Francis appointed cardinals from places that had never had representation—such as Brunei, Mongolia, and South Sudan. This move toward global inclusion has transformed the Church’s leadership body but also introduced complexities into the papal election process.
In the 2013 conclave that elected Francis, 52% of the electors were European. That share has since dropped to 39%, according to Vatican records. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific has grown to 20%, Africa to 13%, while Latin America and North America remain steady at 16% and 12%, respectively. This diversification reflects the changing demographics of Catholicism, which is seeing the fastest growth in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
“Francis’s cardinals are largely strangers to each other,” said Massimo Faggioli, a theologian at Villanova University. “Many are from the peripheries and have little Vatican experience, making consensus harder to forge.”
Longtime Vatican observer Andrea Vreede calls this conclave a “monster,” noting the lack of familiarity among cardinals. “Many know fewer than a dozen fellow electors,” she said. “They’ll need time to assess one another and identify front-runners.”
Topping the list of potential successors is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. An Italian insider with decades of experience in Vatican diplomacy, Parolin is viewed as a candidate of continuity. “He’s kind and competent, but not a charismatic leader,” said Vreede. “Still, that could make him a unifying figure.”
Two other Italians—Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem—are also in the mix. Both are known for their administrative acumen and ability to navigate the complex internal politics of the Curia.
But observers caution against underestimating the influence of cardinals from emerging regions. One such figure is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Known for his charisma and dubbed the “Asian Francis,” Tagle speaks multiple languages and has wide theological appeal. His election would signify a strong push to continue Francis’s reformist agenda.
The conclave’s diversity also brings a wide range of views on social and moral issues. African and Asian cardinals often hold more conservative positions on topics such as 2SLGBTQ+ rights and women’s roles in the church. In contrast, many of Francis’s appointees from Europe and Latin America support more progressive reforms.
“This is the most ideologically diverse conclave in modern history,” said journalist Marco Politi. “The Church is no longer as centralized or Romanized as it once was. Today, cardinals bring with them regional realities that can clash.”
These ideological rifts are expected to make consensus more difficult. Some electors may lean toward a transitional pope with a shorter tenure, such as Parolin, while others may seek a dynamic leader capable of deepening reforms.
Though not seen as a frontrunner, Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, represents Africa’s growing influence. As president of the African bishops’ conference, Besungu’s recent advocacy for an exemption on same-sex blessings in Africa was a major victory for conservative factions on the continent.
His rise underscores the growing political weight of African cardinals, who may band together to influence the final decision even if one of their own is not elected.
History suggests that dark-horse candidates can emerge when factions fail to unite behind a clear favorite. Such was the case in 1978 with the election of Poland’s Cardinal Karol Wojtyła (Pope John Paul II). Some speculate that an outsider with broad appeal could again become a compromise choice.
Church historian Faggioli sums it up: “Even with a majority of Francis-appointed cardinals, there’s no guarantee the next pope will reflect his vision.”
With over 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, the decision facing the conclave has global implications—not only for religious doctrine and Vatican diplomacy but also for broader geopolitical relationships.
Issues such as the Church’s response to wars in Gaza and Ukraine, diplomatic relations with China, and internal reform will all be influenced by the next pope’s vision and leadership style.
As the red-robed cardinals file into the Sistine Chapel on May 7, they carry with them not only centuries of tradition but the hopes and anxieties of a world in flux. Whether they choose continuity, reform, or surprise, one thing is clear: the future of the Catholic Church hangs in the balance.