In a major development reflecting the shifting dynamics of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has announced a significant decline in the country’s Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) importation. Imports have dropped from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to just 14.7 million litres as of April 13, 2025—a dramatic fall of nearly 67 per cent, representing roughly 30 million litres daily.
This was disclosed by NMDPRA’s Chief Executive Officer, Farouk Ahmed, during the sixth edition of the Meet-the-Press briefing hosted by the Presidential Communications Team at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.
The decline in fuel imports comes as local production continues to rise sharply. According to Ahmed, domestic supply increased by over 670 per cent in just eight months—from almost zero contribution in August 2024 to 26.2 million litres per day in early April 2025. This marks a steep improvement from the 3.4 million litres recorded in September 2024—the first month with measurable local refining output.
This surge, Ahmed noted, is largely attributed to the gradual restart of operations at the Port Harcourt Refining Company in late November 2024, alongside increasing output from modular refineries scattered across the country. These developments are gradually shifting the reliance from foreign imports to local production.
Despite the marked progress in domestic supply, total national fuel availability only crossed the government’s 50 million litres per day consumption benchmark twice during the review period—56 million litres in November and 52.3 million litres in February. In March 2025, supply came close at 51.5 million litres, but slipped below target again in April, averaging 40.9 million litres in the first half of the month.
Farouk Ahmed emphasized that import licenses are now issued strictly based on demand and shortfalls in supply. “We no longer grant import permits arbitrarily. Our decisions are driven by real-time data from our supply tracker,” he said.
The sharp decline in PMS imports has both economic and strategic implications for Nigeria. Following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023, the federal government encouraged the revitalization of local refineries and invited private sector participation in domestic petroleum processing.
Industry analysts view the drop in imports as a positive sign of improving energy self-sufficiency, which could help reduce Nigeria’s forex pressure and trade deficit. However, challenges such as distribution bottlenecks, price volatility, and refinery maintenance still pose significant hurdles.
The NMDPRA’s update also comes amid rising concerns from the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), which recently warned of losses resulting from disparities in PMS pricing at different supply points. IPMAN cited cases where the Strategic Government Reserves (SGR) were selling PMS as high as ₦899 per litre, further complicating market stability.
The government has increasingly turned to modular refineries as a solution to enhance domestic refining capacity. These smaller-scale refineries, though limited in output, have begun contributing consistent volumes to the national fuel pool. Their role is expected to grow as the government promotes investment-friendly policies and incentives to encourage more private participation.
Modular refining also promises greater flexibility and decentralization in petroleum processing—an advantage that could help bridge regional supply gaps, especially in remote and underserved areas.
While the drop in PMS imports signals progress, stakeholders say it must be followed with sustained investment in refining infrastructure, pipeline security, and strategic reserves to maintain supply reliability and price stability.
Energy experts are also calling for a gradual but clear roadmap towards alternative fuels and clean energy integration, especially as global trends shift towards decarbonization and climate action.
The NMDPRA is expected to continue monitoring trends through its real-time supply tracker and work in collaboration with stakeholders across the oil and gas value chain to build a resilient, self-sufficient petroleum market.