In the first half of 2025 (January to June), the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, and eight other domestic refineries will need to process 770,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or Bpd.This occurred at a time when the government anticipates producing over two million barrels per day and 62 million barrels per month, respectively.
But the refineries also include the 1,500 bpd Edo Refinery in Edo State, the 2,500bpd Duport Midstream refinery in Edo State, the 10,000 bpd OPAC refinery in Delta State, and the 5,000 bpd Waltersmith refinery in Imo State.
These include the 125,000 bpd Warri Refinery in Delta State, the 110,000bpd Aradel Refinery in Rivers State, the 60,000bpd old Port Harcourt refinery in Rivers State, and the 110,000 bpd Kaduna Refinery in Kaduna State.
“The move is pursuant to Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021 and it is aimed at effective capacity utilization of the nation’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent supply of crude oil,” the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this yesterday, announcing the first half 2025 crude oil production forecast of producing oil companies and the refining requirement of functional refineries.
The Commission estimates that the allocation represents almost 37% of the 2,066,940 bpd average daily output projected for the first half of 2025.
It insisted that the goal would be accomplished since the country’s ability to produce petroleum for both domestic and international markets has grown since the commencement of Project One Million Barrels in October 2024.
According to the Commission, the project is in line with Nigeria’s resolve to support its domestic refining capabilities and guarantee the long-term viability of its oil sector.
It stated, “The forecasted daily crude requirement for Refineries which is Seven Hundred and Seventy Thousand, Five Hundred barrels (770,500 Bopd), is about 37% of the forecasted first half 2025 average daily production of Two Million, Sixty-Six Thousand, Nine Hundred and Forty Barrels (2,066,940 Bopd).
“However, it will be recalled that in October 2024, NUPRC launched Project 1 million Barrels which is expected to favourably impact the national production. NUPRC is leveraging the capacity of upstream operators to meet the target daily production of Two Million, Five Hundred Thousand Barrels (2,500,000 Bopd) in the short term.
“This strategic initiative aligns with Nigeria’s commitment to bolstering its domestic refining capacity and ensuring the sustainability of its oil industry. The first half of 2025 is expected to witness increased synergy between local refineries and producing companies, setting the stage for a more robust and self-reliant petroleum landscape in Nigeria.”
Refineries’ needs for crude
Some International Oil Companies, IoCs, and independent companies, such as Shell, Chevron, and Seplat Energy, would supply the crude oil.
Given that the refineries had varying crude projection requirements, the Commission set the OPAC refinery’s and Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s requirements at 5,000 and 550,000 barrels per day, respectively.
The respective capacities of Waltersmith Refinery, Duport Midstream, Edo Refinery, and Aradel Refinery are 4,500 bpd, 2,000 bpd, 1,000 bpd, and 7,000 bpd.
Furthermore, the refineries in Kaduna, Warri, and Port Harcourt require 60,000, 75,000, and 66,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Oil production increases 7.38%.
In the meantime, Nigeria’s average daily oil output increased by 7.38% year over year to 1.667 million barrels per day, including condensate, in December 2024 from 1.552 million barrels per day during the same month in 2023.
However, according to the NUPRC’s most recent data on oil production, the average daily oil production in December 2024 decreased by 1.35 percent month over month from 1.690 million barrels per day in November 2024 to 1.667 million barrels per day.
According to Commission data, the highest daily oil production in December 2024 was 1.79 million barrels per day, while the lowest daily production was 1.57 million barrels per day.
The total amount of oil produced in December 2024 was 51.69 million barrels, which was a slight increase of 1.9% over the 50.71 million barrels produced in November 2024.
Subsequent data analysis revealed that the Forcados Terminal produced the most oil in December 2024 (8.49 million barrels), followed by the Bonny Terminal (7.78 million barrels) and Qua Iboe (4.15 million barrels).
According to the data, Nigeria produced 1.484 million barrels of oil per day without condensate, meaning it once again fell short of the 1.5 million barrels per day oil production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.