“President Bola Tinubu is encountering significant challenges in his attempt to gain a two thirds majority in the national assembly to authorize his declaration of emergency rule in Rivers state, according.”
On Tuesday, Tinubu announced a state of emergency in the south-south state, citing an ongoing political crisis.
The president controversially suspended Siminalayi Fubara, the governor of the state, along with his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and all house assembly members for a period of six months.
Tinubu has nominated Ibok-Ete Ibas, a retired vice-admiral and former chief of naval staff, to act as the administrator.
To activate the emergency rule, section 305 (2) of the constitution stipulates that the president must convey the proclamation to both the senate president and the speaker of the house of representatives.
There is considerable debate regarding the source of the president’s authority to suspend an elected governor, as this is not explicitly delineated in the 1999 constitution.
Moreover, the constitution doesn’t specifically provide for the appointment of an administrator, although President Olusegun Obasanjo established a contentious precedent in the past.
TWO-THIRDS ROADBLOCK
According to section 305 (6), a “proclamation issued by the President under this section shall cease to have effect (b) if it affects the Federation or any part thereof and within two days when the National Assembly is in session, or within ten days when the National Assembly is not in session, after its publication, there is no resolution supported by two-thirds majority of all the members of each House of the National Assembly approving the proclamation.”
With 360 members in the House of Representatives and 109 in the Senate, Tinubu requires at least 240 votes in the House and 73 in the Senate for his proclamation to be upheld.
Conversely, only 36 senators are needed to reject the proclamation.
Even if the Senate approves it, 121 representatives can still vote against it.
National assembly sources informed TheCable that the president’s supporters are struggling to amass the necessary votes.
Due to the insufficient votes, the Senate moved the motion to Thursday.
Sources indicate that many lawmakers remain unconvinced about the need and legality of Tinubu’s actions, fearing it could set a perilous precedent.
An insider mentioned that lawmakers are split along party lines, with opposition members and even some from the All Progressives Congress (APC) hesitant to endorse the emergency rule.
Should the president fail to secure the two-thirds majority in both chambers to ratify the emergency rule by Thursday as required by the constitution, Tinubu would have to revoke his proclamation, thereby reinstating Fubara and his administration.
QUORUM QUAGMIRE
Another major obstacle, as some lawmakers relayed to TheCable, is that both the Senate and the House of Representatives are struggling to achieve a quorum due to many members being out of the country.
A considerable number of lawmakers are currently in Saudi Arabia for the lesser hajj and Ramadan fasting.
The quorum for the Senate is 36, while it is 120 for the House.
“Even if we manage to form a quorum, the constitution states that the vote shall involve all members — meaning 109 in the Senate and 360 in the House,” a member of the House of Representatives told TheCable.
The leaders of the national assembly were gathering signatures on Wednesday night to facilitate absentee voting — but some lawmakers warned that this approach would be unconstitutional.
Section 305 (2) of the 1999 constitution specifies that the president of the Senate and the speaker of the House shall “convene” or “arrange for a meeting” to address the situation “and decide whether or not to pass a resolution approving the proclamation.”
“There is no provision for absentee or WhatsApp voting,” a senator remarked to TheCable on Wednesday night.
“Every member will stand up and declare if they are in support of or against the declaration of the state of emergency.”
‘A BIG MISCALCULATION’
An APC senator conveyed to TheCable that the president did not conduct sufficient due diligence prior to declaring the state of emergency, “and he has now put us in a difficult situation.”
The constitution specifies in subsection 6 that for the proclamation to take effect, it must be approved within two days if the national assembly is in session — or within ten days if it is not.
“We had adjourned until Wednesday when the president made the announcement, so automatically we are in session and that means we have to vote within two days, at the latest Thursday,” he explained.
“If he had coordinated better with us, we would have adjourned indefinitely before the proclamation — which would have given us 10 days to organize and gather the numbers.”
Late Tuesday night, following the president’s declaration of the emergency rule, Akin Rotimi, spokesperson for the House of Representatives, stated that Tinubu consulted the national assembly before the announcement.
Rotimi also noted that Tinubu’s letter informing the House of Representatives of his decision and seeking approval for the state of emergency in Rivers, in accordance with section 305 of the constitution, had been transmitted to the green chamber and was set to be read during plenary on Wednesday for additional legislative action.
However, the letter was not presented on the floor of the green chamber that day.
The Senate postponed a motion regarding the emergency rule during Wednesday’s plenary.
The motion, which was the first item on the agenda, was set aside before any discussion could occur.
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