The World Trade Organization (WTO) has predicted that global trade will remain steady in early 2025, despite growing trade policy uncertainty and looming tariffs. According to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade remained stable in the final quarter of 2024 and showed signs of continued growth in early 2025.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator that tracks global trade momentum. The indicator edged up slightly to 102.8 from 102.7 in December, signaling that trade volumes remained above trend. A reading above 100 suggests above-trend trade growth, while a figure below 100 signals weaker-than-expected performance.
The latest reading of 102.8 suggested sustained trade recovery following the downturn of 2023. However, economists cautioned that businesses may have temporarily increased imports in anticipation of possible policy shifts, potentially dampening demand later in the year.
World merchandise trade volumes expanded by 3.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, reinforcing the WTO’s earlier forecast of 2.7% growth for the full year. However, regional disparities were notable. European trade underperformed expectations, with both exports and imports remaining weak.
In contrast, North American imports and Asian exports exceeded predictions, reflecting stronger demand dynamics in these regions. The WTO noted that the overall resilience of global trade is tempered by risks tied to escalating trade tensions.
Talks of new tariffs and protectionist measures, particularly among major economies, could disrupt supply chains and weigh on trade performance in the second half of 2025. The WTO warned that rising geopolitical tensions, potential trade policy shifts, and uncertain economic conditions could reshape the trajectory of global commerce.
The WTO highlighted that all six component indices of the Goods Trade Barometer remained on or above trend. Automotive products, container shipping, and air freight showed the strongest performance, indicating robust demand in these sectors. However, indices for export orders, electronic components, and raw materials remained closer to the baseline.
While early 2025 data suggests global trade remains on a recovery path, underlying risks pose significant questions for the months ahead. As businesses and policymakers navigate this uncertain landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether global trade continues its steady expansion or faces renewed headwinds.