Nigeria’s oil sector has recorded a major milestone as crude oil theft drops to lowest since 2009, signaling renewed hope for the country’s struggling petroleum industry and broader economy.
Fresh figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveal a sharp 50.2 percent decline in crude losses in the first seven months of 2025, the most significant progress in nearly two decades.
According to a statement by NUPRC’s Head of Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, Nigeria lost 2.04 million barrels of crude between January and July 2025, averaging 9,600 barrels per day.
This marks the lowest level of daily crude oil theft since 2009, when losses averaged 8,500 barrels per day.
In comparison, Nigeria lost 4.1 million barrels in 2024, averaging 11,300 barrels daily, and a staggering 37.6 million barrels in 2021, the country’s worst year on record.
The latest figures therefore represent a 94.57 percent reduction from the 2021 peak, underscoring how sustained regulatory reforms, tighter security, and community engagement are changing the tide.
The NUPRC credited the improvement to its mix of “kinetic and non-kinetic” measures.
On the kinetic front, the commission worked closely with security agencies, oil operators, and host communities to secure vulnerable oil installations, especially in the Niger Delta.
On the non-kinetic front, it introduced stronger regulatory frameworks, including metering audits to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports, while implementing provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
“The commission has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies in tackling oil losses.
On the kinetic front, we continue to work with security agencies, operators, and communities. On the non-kinetic front, we have tightened regulations and introduced strategic initiatives like metering audits across upstream facilities,” the NUPRC stated.
To consolidate progress, the regulator also approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to minimize crude oil theft, ensure transparency, and build confidence in Nigeria’s oil supply chain.
Nigeria’s oil sector has long battled widespread theft, which has undermined production, slashed government revenues, and discouraged investment.
At its peak in 2021, the crisis pushed daily losses to more than 100,000 barrels, threatening national security and crippling the economy.
The trend began to improve in 2022, when losses dropped to 20.9 million barrels, averaging 57,200 barrels per day.
In 2023, it fell further to 4.3 million barrels at 11,900 barrels daily, before sliding to 4.1 million barrels in 2024.
The 2025 milestone confirms that crude oil theft drops to lowest since 2009, a development analysts say could reshape Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.
Industry experts argue that reducing theft enhances Nigeria’s ability to meet its OPEC production quota, strengthens foreign exchange earnings, and restores investor confidence at a time when the country desperately needs foreign capital inflows.
The breakthrough has drawn praise from industry stakeholders.
The Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group (IPPG), Oyeleke Banmeke, confirmed in June 2025 that crude theft had fallen significantly compared with two to three years ago.
Banmeke commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration for strengthening security operations in oil-producing areas, particularly the Niger Delta, which has long been the epicenter of crude theft.
“The collaboration between regulators, operators, security agencies, and communities has yielded impressive results,” he noted.
Analysts also point out that the achievement is a morale booster for Nigeria’s economic reform agenda.
With public finances strained by rising debt and subsidy removal challenges, a consistent drop in oil theft could provide the government with much-needed fiscal relief.
The fact that crude oil theft drops to lowest since 2009 carries far-reaching implications:
Revenue Boost: More crude reaching the market translates to higher export earnings and improved government revenue. This could ease budget deficits and fund critical infrastructure.
Investor Confidence: The oil sector, plagued for years by insecurity, is now regaining credibility. Reduced theft makes Nigeria a more attractive destination for upstream investments.
Community Benefits: Host communities, often caught between militancy and government neglect, are beginning to see gains from increased stability, including jobs, infrastructure, and royalties.
Energy Security: With less crude being siphoned off, Nigeria can guarantee steady feedstock for domestic refineries, supporting the government’s energy transition and reducing dependence on imports.
Despite the progress, experts caution that vigilance must be sustained.
Crude Oil theft networks are highly adaptive, and any relaxation of security measures could reverse recent gains.
The NUPRC has therefore stressed the need for continued partnership with local communities, noting that genuine inclusion and empowerment remain the strongest defense against sabotage.
Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of NUPRC, has repeatedly emphasized that “protecting Nigeria’s most vital resource is not just a regulatory duty but a national economic imperative.” He added that transparency, accountability, and continuous monitoring will remain at the heart of Nigeria’s oil sector reforms.
Nigeria’s oil sector has long symbolized both the nation’s wealth and its vulnerabilities.
The fact that crude oil theft drops to lowest since 2009 demonstrates that with the right mix of policy, regulation, and collaboration, entrenched problems can be overcome.
As the country works to stabilize its economy, diversify revenue sources, and attract investment, curbing oil theft may prove to be one of the most important victories of the decade.
For many Nigerians, it is a sign that the era of unchecked losses and economic sabotage may finally be giving way to one of renewed stability and growth.