The European Union is facing a critical juncture in its efforts to combat climate change, with member states struggling to agree on crucial targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
A leaked draft document reveals significant disagreements among EU countries, casting doubt on the bloc’s ability to present a united front at the upcoming Cop30 climate summit in Brazil.
The leaked document, seen by the Guardian, shows blanks and placeholder text where key numbers outlining new targets should be, sparking concerns among experts.
Niklas Höhne, co-founder of the New Climate Institute, expressed disappointment that internal discussions on the EU’s new climate target do not yet include target values. “It is getting very late.
It is now extremely urgent that the EU presents a new climate target to the international negotiations,” Höhne emphasized.
Currently, only 28 out of 196 countries have submitted new targets, and the EU’s submission is seen as crucial to unleashing momentum and encouraging other countries to follow suit.
The EU’s current target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
However, experts argue that the next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035 should set the EU on track to meet its goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, implying a reduction of 90% to 95% in emissions by 2040, and around 74% to 78% by 2035.
Michael Petroni, a climate policy analyst for Climate Analytics, stressed that a simple linear path from 2030 to 2040 would not align with the 1.5C goal, delaying critical near-term action when global leadership is most needed.
The EU’s discussions are complicated by timelines, with internal plans calling for a 2040 target to be set first. However, some member states have suggested separating the discussions, which could lead to weaker targets.
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has raised the prospect of delaying or diluting the bloc’s commitments, while Viktor Orbán, the hard-right leader of Hungary, and Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy, are also expected to push for weaker targets.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of global policy and campaigns at (link unavailable), criticized Macron and right-wing anti-Europeans like Orbán and Meloni for playing a “reckless political game” with the EU climate target.
“The delays contradict the urgency of climate action and the pursuit of security and prosperity,” Sieber said, highlighting the importance of ambitious targets for jobs, energy security, and competitiveness.
The lack of commitment from the EU would cause problems at Cop30, a summit already facing challenges due to US hostility and geopolitical headwinds.
Donald Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris agreement for a second time has emboldened countries that want to slow or obstruct progress at Cop30.
Sieber warned that the EU must play a stronger role, emphasizing that Macron’s attempts to water down ambition undermine Europe’s credibility and betray climate commitments the world is counting on.
