China exports expanded by 4.4% year-on-year in August 2025, according to official trade data released on Monday, signaling resilience in the world’s second-largest economy despite escalating tensions with the United States.
However, the figures fell short of Bloomberg’s forecast of 5.5%, reflecting the ongoing complexities of global trade amid shifting alliances and tariff wars.
Exports to the United States, traditionally China’s largest single-country trading partner, plunged sharply in August.
Official figures revealed an 11.8% monthly decline and a staggering 33.1% drop compared to the same period last year.
Analysts attribute this slump to a combination of tariffs, weak US demand, and Washington’s tightening restrictions on goods rerouted through third-party countries.
In contrast, China exports recorded robust gains in exports to other regions.
Shipments to the European Union grew by 10.4%, while exports to Southeast Asia surged by 22.5% year-on-year.
These increases highlight China’s pivot to alternative markets as it seeks to cushion the impact of souring relations with Washington.
Economists note that the redirection of China exports to Southeast Asia and Europe reflects both opportunity and necessity.
“Trade diversion remains evident,” Yue Su, Principal Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.
“Much of this reflects supply-chain diversification to avoid higher tariffs, a practice also seen during the first US-China trade war.”
China’s deeply interwoven supply chains with Southeast Asia allow manufacturers to maintain production while bypassing harsher US trade barriers.
However, Washington has accused Beijing of engaging in “transshipping” — sending goods through third countries to avoid tariffs.
China’s import growth also lagged expectations in August, rising just 1.3% compared to the forecast of 3.4%.
The figures point to weak domestic demand, which has been hampered by persistent challenges in the property sector, sluggish consumer spending, and elevated youth unemployment.
Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, explained that the earlier resilience of exports had been supported by “frontloading” — accelerating shipments in anticipation of tariff hikes.
“That frontloading is probably fading away,” he noted, suggesting that the short-term boost may not be sustainable.
Earlier this year, US-China tariffs reached unprecedented levels, climbing into triple digits and disrupting global supply chains.
Many importers temporarily halted shipments, waiting for both governments to negotiate. A truce was eventually reached, with Washington lowering tariffs to 30% and Beijing reducing its duties to 10%.
In August, the two countries agreed to extend a pause on further tariff hikes for another 90 days, pushing the deadline to November 10.
While the move has temporarily stabilized trade, analysts warn that the truce is fragile and could unravel if negotiations stall.
“Exports are likely to come under pressure in the near term,” said Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics.
He added that the temporary relief from the truce is fading, and with the US increasing scrutiny on rerouted shipments, risks to China’s trade growth remain high.
China has set an official growth target of around 5% for 2025, but sustaining momentum remains difficult.
Factory output in August showed modest improvement, yet it still marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction.
This underlines how trade tensions, coupled with internal economic weaknesses, are weighing on the export-driven economy.
The government is expected to roll out more stimulus measures in the coming months to support growth.
These may include targeted investments in infrastructure, easing credit conditions, and policies to boost consumer confidence.
Still, with external demand under strain, experts say China must rebalance its economy towards domestic consumption to achieve long-term stability.
China’s export performance carries significant implications for global markets, especially for developing economies like Nigeria that depend on Chinese trade and investment.
As Beijing diversifies its trade partners, African and Asian economies could benefit from increased market access, technology transfer, and supply chain integration.
However, persistent volatility in US-China relations may also pose risks to countries tied closely to both economies.
While China’s 4.4% export growth in August reflects resilience, the sharp decline in shipments to the US underscores ongoing vulnerabilities.
The ability of Beijing to sustain export momentum through Southeast Asia and Europe will be critical in the months ahead.
But with a fragile trade truce set to expire in November and domestic challenges persisting, the road ahead for China’s economy remains uncertain.
