Catastrophic monsoon floods have ravaged Pakistan‘s north and central regions, particularly its Punjab province, submerging villages, drowning farmland, displacing millions, and killing hundreds.
This year, India, Pakistan’s archrival and nuclear-armed neighbor, is also reeling from widespread flooding in its northern states, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Indian Punjab.
Pakistani authorities report at least 884 deaths nationwide, with over 220 fatalities in Punjab, while India’s casualty count has exceeded 100, with more than 30 dead in Indian Punjab.
Amidst the devastation, Pakistani Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal accused New Delhi of deliberately releasing excess water from dams without timely warnings, causing widespread flooding in Punjab.
“India has started using water as a weapon and has caused wide-scale flooding in Punjab,” Iqbal said, citing releases into the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers.
He further emphasized that releasing floodwater was the “worst example of water aggression” by India, threatening lives, property, and livelihoods.
However, experts argue that evidence is thin to suggest India deliberately sought to flood Pakistan, and the larger nation’s own woes point to the risks of such a strategy.
“The Indian decision to release water from their dam has not caused flooding in Pakistan,” said Daanish Mustafa, a professor of critical geography at King’s College London.
“India has major dams on its rivers, which eventually make their way to Pakistan. Any excess water that will be released from these rivers will significantly impact India’s own states first.”
Both Pakistan and India depend on glaciers in the Himalayan and Karakoram ranges to feed their rivers.
The Indus river basin is a lifeline for Pakistan, supplying water to most of its 250 million people and underpinning its agriculture.
Climate change has dramatically altered average rainfall patterns, rendering dam designs obsolete and meaningless. “When the capacity of the dams is exceeded, water must be released or it will put the entire structure at risk of destruction,” Mustafa explained.
Shiraz Memon, a former Pakistani representative on the bilateral commission tasked with monitoring the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), echoed similar sentiments.
“Instead of acknowledging that India has shared warnings, we are blaming them for water terrorism. It is a simple, natural flood phenomenon.” Memon added that reservoirs across the region were full by the end of August, necessitating downstream releases.
The blame game between India and Pakistan can serve short-term political purposes, especially after the May conflict. For India, suspending the IWT is framed as a firm stance against Pakistan’s alleged state-sponsored terrorism.
For Pakistan, blaming India provides a political scapegoat, distracting from domestic failures in flood mitigation and governance. “Rivers are living, breathing entities.
This is what they do; they are always on the move. You cannot control the flood, especially a high or severe flood,” Mustafa said. Blaming India won’t stop the floods, but it appears to be an “easy way out to relinquish responsibility”.