Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery has recorded a sharp surge in fuel exports as refinery shutdowns across the Middle East tighten global supply and push buyers to seek alternatives.
Industry sources confirmed that the $20bn refinery in Lekki, Lagos, exported significant volumes of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (diesel), and Jet A1 (aviation fuel) in recent months, capitalising on disruptions from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and India.
A senior refinery official, who requested anonymity, revealed that two long-range cargoes of fuel were exported to the Middle East Gulf between June and July, marking a significant milestone for Africa’s largest oil refinery.
“We export PMS, AGO, and Jet A1. Demand has been strong as regional suppliers deal with refinery maintenance and output cuts,” the source told our correspondent.
According to Argus Media, a heavy refinery turnaround season in the Middle East Gulf has deepened supply strains.
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, has already shut down key facilities, including the 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery and the Yanbu refinery, while its 460,000 b/d Satorp plant in Jubail is set for a 60-day shutdown between November and December.
Maintenance at Kuwait’s 490,000 b/d Mina Abdullah refinery and reduced run rates at India’s 400,000 b/d Vadinar refinery are expected to further limit supply, coinciding with a seasonal demand increase as India exits the monsoon season.
The Gulf region has already turned to imports, with gasoline purchases reaching a seven-month high.
Data from Vortexa shows gasoline imports into the Middle East Gulf jumped 35% in July to 1.03 million tonnes, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the surge.
The disruptions have created an opening for the Dangote refinery, which has steadily ramped up production since beginning operations in 2024.
In February, Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, confirmed the sale of two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, a landmark deal that underscored the refinery’s global relevance.
“Today, Nigeria has actually become a net exporter of refined products.
From the beginning of June to July 22, we exported about 1 million tonnes of PMS within 50 days,” Dangote announced.
The refinery, designed with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, aims to scale up to 700,000 b/d by December 2025, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world.
While some reports have suggested technical challenges with its residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) unit, company officials insist operations remain on track and exports will continue to grow as markets tighten.
Global gasoline prices have already felt the pinch. Argus reports that premiums for gasoline cargoes offered by Middle Eastern suppliers have strengthened, with Pakistan’s PSO receiving offers at premiums of $7–12 per barrel above spot levels.
The entry of Nigerian refined products is expected to reshape trade flows, as African and Asian markets look to Lagos for supply.
Analysts say Dangote’s exports could serve as a stabilizing force in a volatile market.
“Dangote refinery has the potential to be a swing supplier in the global market, much like Asian refiners have been in the past,” said Dr. Amina Yusuf, an oil market analyst based in London.
“Its exports are arriving at a time when the Middle East is constrained, which gives Nigeria a competitive edge.”
For Nigeria, long plagued by fuel import dependence despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the refinery’s export boom represents a turning point.
The country has historically spent billions importing refined products, straining foreign reserves and fueling inflation.
By exporting refined products, Nigeria is not only earning foreign exchange but also positioning itself as a regional refining hub.
“This is a paradigm shift for Nigeria’s economy. For the first time in decades, we are on the supply side of refined products, not just crude oil,” noted economist Henry Ajayi.
With refinery shutdowns expected to persist into late 2025, demand for Dangote’s products is likely to remain strong.
Industry observers believe the refinery’s exports could expand into Europe and South America as market dynamics evolve.
The Dangote Group has stated that it remains committed to meeting both domestic and international demand, ensuring Nigeria’s growing status as a net exporter is sustained.
“We are reaching the ambitious goals we set for ourselves,” Dangote said.
“Our refinery will continue to deliver value to Nigeria and the world.”
As global refiners grapple with maintenance schedules, technical issues, and shifting demand, Nigeria’s entry into the export market via the Dangote refinery is poised to redefine the balance of power in global energy trade.