The United States has proposed establishing an economic zone in southern Lebanon, aiming to incentivize the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.
US envoy Thomas Barrack floated the idea during a visit to Lebanon, suggesting it could help substitute Iranian influence and provide livelihoods for those paid by Iran to fight. However, analysts and locals have expressed skepticism about the plan.
The proposed economic zone is envisioned as a way to boost Lebanon’s economy and provide an alternative to Hezbollah’s influence.
However, many Lebanese are still traumatized by the recent war with Israel, which killed over 4,000 people and displaced more than a million. Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Bitar believes this trauma will impede acceptance of the US economic zone proposal.
“People in south Lebanon are still traumatized by the recent war,” Bitar said. “Many Arabs, Muslims and people in the Global South do not view the US as an honest broker.”
Analysts argue that the plan is far-fetched and poorly thought out, with few details provided beyond hints at financing. The idea may be based on similar zones in Jordan and Egypt, which have peace deals with Israel.
However, Lebanon’s situation is different, and many Lebanese would vehemently reject normalization with Israel. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem has already rejected the idea of disarmament, saying, “we will not abandon the weapons that honour us nor the weapons that protect us from our enemy.”
Experts have raised concerns about the potential consequences of such economic zones.
Yasser Elsheshtawy, an adjunct professor of architecture at Columbia University, notes that these zones can operate as isolated enclaves, disconnected from local communities, and lead to serious environmental consequences. They can also play a role in the abuse of workers’ rights, as the right to form unions is typically prohibited.
Moreover, there is a significant lack of trust in the US among the Lebanese population. Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, said, “I don’t see any desire or buy-in. If it ever takes off, there will be buy-in, but all this is very premature.”
Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst believed to be close to Hezbollah, stated, “the idea is rejected because there is no trust in America.”
The proposal is part of a broader effort to address the complex dynamics in the region. The US and Israel have been pushing for Hezbollah’s disarmament, while Hezbollah has maintained its right to defend Lebanon against Israeli aggression.
The Iran-backed group has seen its popularity outside its core constituency plummet over the past 20 years due to its involvement in regional conflicts.
The US has stood idly by as Israel has attacked its neighbors on multiple fronts in the past 23 months, including in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria.
Joseph Daher, author of Hezbollah: Political Economy of the Party of God, said, “the US has not been, especially in the past year and a half, pressuring Israel to stop its violation of human rights either in the genocide in Palestine, the occupation of Lebanon or in Syria. Quite the opposite – it has been supporting them.”
The future of the proposed economic zone remains uncertain, with many questions about its feasibility and potential impact. As Daher noted, “the process of normalization will take time to be imposed but is moving forward de facto, … so it is more about dealing with the situation as it is and the lack of political alternatives.”
The proposal’s success will depend on addressing the deep-seated concerns and mistrust among the Lebanese population.
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