The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit is set to take place in Tianjin, China, bringing together over 20 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The gathering assumes significance amidst the ongoing US trade war, with President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on several countries, including China and India.
Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, notes that the SCO has become an essential part of China’s “parallel international governance architecture,” providing a platform for dialogue and cooperation outside the US-led international system.
The summit will feature a diverse range of power brokers from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, including leaders from countries with longstanding rivalries and border disputes.
Olander observes that “underneath the happy family photo is a lot of looking over shoulders,” highlighting the complex dynamics at play.
Despite these tensions, the SCO has expanded its membership in recent years to include India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus as full members, with several countries participating as observers or dialogue partners.
The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be closely watched, given their strained ties since the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes.
However, with both countries facing Trump’s tariffs, analysts expect a thaw in relations. Claus Soong, an analyst at Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies, says, “The key is to look at how China [characterises] its relationship with India after the visit and how the relationship improves between China and India.”
The SCO summit will also mark the first meeting between Putin and Xi since the Russian leader met with President Trump in Alaska earlier this month.
Analysts expect the SCO summit to focus on security, counter-terrorism, economic cooperation, and trade. China is likely to push for an SCO Development Bank, a plan stalled since 2010 due to Russia’s opposition.
Dylan Loh, assistant professor of public policy and global affairs at Nanyang Technological University, notes that “a lot more will still need to be done in building consensus on who funds, who can exercise the most influence, how governance will look like (and) what purposes it will primarily serve.”
The summit’s outcome is likely to be a joint statement from all attendees, with China and Russia pushing talking points such as their opposition to “unilateralism” – a coded reference to the US.
Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at the China Programme at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, says, “The symbolism of actually achieving a joint statement is more important than the content of the statement itself.”
He expects the statement to focus on “security and stability, comments about improving economic cooperation, and a couple of comments about the importance of multilateralism”.
Following the summit, guests will have a full day in China before attending a massive military parade in Beijing on September 3, marking 80 years since the end of World War II in Asia.
The parade will feature advanced military hardware, and several world leaders, including North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, are expected to attend.
The SCO summit and the military parade will provide China with an opportunity to demonstrate its diplomatic clout and project itself as a stabilizing force in the region.
As Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, notes, “China remains committed to prioritising the SCO in its neighbourhood diplomacy.”
The summit will allow China to showcase its growing profile and power, particularly in the context of US-China competition.
