Vladimir Putin‘s upcoming visit to China will be a crucial moment for the Russian leader to align his country’s position on the Ukraine war with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
The trip, which is expected to last nearly a week, will include talks with Xi, attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, and participation in Beijing’s Victory Day military parade.
According to Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, “It is an important time for them to talk about where the war is headed and how likely it is to be stopped in the near future.”
The discussions between Putin and Xi will likely focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Moscow seeking to understand the extent of Beijing’s support and potential pressure from the US to end the fighting.
Gabuev noted that “The two leaders need to compare notes and make sure they are on the same page. This is important because the war has become one of the main pillars of their relationship.”
The economic ties between Russia and China have grown significantly since the start of the war, with bilateral trade reaching over $240 billion last year.
China has emerged as a vital economic partner for Russia, and the two countries are expected to discuss long-term energy deals, including the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline and plans to expand the existing oil link into China.
Vasiliy Kashin, of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said, “Russia and China share a similar view of history, casting themselves as the victorious powers of the second world war. This sense of shared destiny now underpins their partnership.”
The visit will also provide an opportunity for Putin and Xi to discuss deepening military cooperation between their countries, which has raised concerns in Western governments.
While China claims to be a neutral mediator in the Ukraine conflict, the US has accused Beijing of supplying Russia with critical components for its war machine. Kashin noted that “Relations between Russia and China will always be close. A scenario in which Russia would turn against China, or China against Russia, is impossible.”
The summit comes at a time when both leaders feel emboldened, with China having managed to stave off a trade war with the US and Russia having brushed aside threats of penalties from the Trump administration.
Gabuev said, “China remains clear-eyed about the slim prospects for peace and sees little reason to accelerate talks. They know that Russia and Ukraine remain very far apart. No one is really asking China to step in – and that suits Beijing, since it can continue with imitation diplomacy without doing much in reality.”
As Putin and Xi meet, the international community will be watching closely to see how their discussions shape the future of the Ukraine conflict and the relationship between Russia and China.
With the two leaders having already demonstrated their solidarity through symbolic gestures, such as Xi’s attendance at the Victory Day parade in Moscow, it is clear that their alliance will continue to play a significant role in shaping global politics.
In the context of this meeting, the role of other global players, including the US, will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the future of international relations.
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain – the relationship between Russia and China will remain a key factor in shaping the course of global events.