The Constitutional Court of Thailand is set to deliver a verdict on whether to remove suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office, a decision that could have far-reaching implications for the country’s politics and the Shinawatra dynasty.
The court’s ruling is expected to determine whether Paetongtarn will be stripped of her position as prime minister, following allegations of ethical misconduct related to a phone call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen.
The phone call, which took place in May, sparked controversy in Thailand after Paetongtarn was heard kowtowing to Hun Sen and criticizing a senior Thai army commander.
Paetongtarn apologized for her remarks, but the Constitutional Court took up a petition accusing her of ethical misconduct and suspended her pending a review of the case. If the court rules against Paetongtarn, she will become the fifth prime minister since 2008 to be removed from office by Thailand’s judges.
Analysts say that the saga, combined with the failure of Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai party-led coalition to deliver on key economic pledges, has left the Shinawatra brand in peril.
“I think that the Shinawatra brand is done for,” said Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Pheu Thai depends very much on the Shinawatra legacy… Even the charismatic leadership that Thaksin is often associated with has been chipped away by Paetongtarn’s naivete that has been put on public spectacle on a global scale,” he added.
The Pheu Thai party’s popularity has been plummeting due to its inability to reset the economy or drive through key policies. The party’s decision to strike a deal with royalist, military-backed parties to take office in 2023 has also sparked public anger.
“Thaksin had the moral high ground of being overthrown, from being democratically elected, but he gave up that moral high ground by making a deal with the establishment,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor and senior fellow of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science.
If Paetongtarn is removed from office, Thailand could face prolonged uncertainty. The current constitution allows only politicians who had been nominated for prime minister by their parties before the 2023 elections to take power.
This could lead to a snap election or a new coalition government with Pheu Thai as a junior partner under a conservative leadership. “Thai democracy exists largely on paper,” said Pannika Wanich, a former Move Forward legislator who has been given a lifetime ban from politics.
“Thai politics resembles a real-life Squid Game. Prime ministers are eliminated one after another until the game master gets the player they want. The rules are rigged – and the normal principles of democracy don’t apply,” she added.
The outcome of the court’s ruling will not only determine Paetongtarn’s fate but also have significant implications for Thailand’s politics and the future of the Shinawatra dynasty.
As the verdict approaches, the country remains gripped by uncertainty, with many wondering what the future holds for Thailand’s democracy and its people.