Nigeria’s fiscal buffers remain under intense scrutiny as the Accountant-General of the Federation (AGF), Shamsedeen Ogunjimi, on Thursday disclosed that the balance in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) stood at just $535,823.39 as of August 2025.
Ogunjimi, represented by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, revealed the figures during the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting presided over by Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.
The announcement has reignited debate over the declining reserves of the ECA, which once served as Nigeria’s primary fiscal safeguard against volatile oil prices and external shocks.
The ECA was established in 2004 under former President Olusegun Obasanjo as a mechanism to save oil revenues earned above budgetary benchmarks.
Its purpose was to stabilize the economy during oil price fluctuations, fund major infrastructure projects, and provide a buffer against fiscal crises.
At its peak, the account reportedly held over $20 billion in 2008.
However, years of withdrawals, lack of transparency, and declining oil output have left the account depleted.
As of April 2025, the balance was $473,754.57, meaning the latest figure shows only a marginal increase.
In his update, the AGF also announced balances of ₦78.45bn in the Stabilisation Account and ₦106.73bn in the Natural Resources Account.
At the same meeting, the National Economic Council unveiled the framework for the Renewed Hope Development Plan (2026–2030), a successor to the National Development Plan (2021–2025), which expires this year.
Vice President Shettima stressed that the plan is critical for consolidating President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda and achieving the administration’s ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2030.
“Another major consideration today is the expiration of the National Development Plan 2021–2025 and the preparation of its successor, the Renewed Hope Plan 2026–2030,” Shettima said.
The Vice President explained that the new plan would align with Nigeria Agenda 2050, a long-term vision document, while ensuring policy continuity across administrations.
Economic experts have raised concerns over the diminishing size of the Excess Crude Account.
With a balance of barely half a million dollars, the account is insufficient to cushion the economy in the event of a sudden oil price shock or fiscal emergency.
Professor Bismarck Rewane, a renowned economist, recently noted that Nigeria’s fiscal buffers have been critically eroded, leaving the government with limited options to manage external volatility.
“The ECA has become largely symbolic at this point. What is left is not enough to meet even modest national obligations,” he observed.
Civil society groups have also demanded greater transparency on withdrawals from the account, calling on government agencies to explain how the once-robust fund was depleted to its current level.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has long struggled with declining crude production, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment in its oil sector.
These factors have significantly reduced the inflow of petrodollars into national reserves.
Although the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and reforms in the NNPC Limited are expected to boost domestic refining and revenue inflows in the medium term, the immediate challenge remains how to stabilize government finances in the face of low buffers.
According to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s production levels have fluctuated between 1.2 million and 1.5 million barrels per day in recent months, far below its OPEC quota.
Despite the worrying ECA balance, the federal government has defended its fiscal strategy, pointing to the broader objectives of the Renewed Hope Agenda.
Finance Minister Wale Edun reiterated that the Tinubu administration is committed to structural reforms, diversification of revenue, and investment in infrastructure that would position the economy for long-term growth.
“The Renewed Hope Plan is not just a policy document; it is a roadmap to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable development.
Our focus is on building a resilient economy that can deliver jobs and prosperity for Nigerians,” Edun said.
The depletion of the Excess Crude Account highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability to oil dependence and underscores the urgency of diversifying its revenue sources.
As the country transitions to a new development plan, analysts stress that transparency, fiscal discipline, and policy consistency will be critical.
While the government targets a $1 trillion economy by 2030, the journey begins with addressing present vulnerabilities.
With less than $600,000 in its flagship savings account, Nigeria faces the dual challenge of implementing ambitious reforms while regaining public trust in its fiscal management.