The European powers, comprising France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, have triggered a mechanism that would reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran for failing to engage with the international community to reach a deal on its nuclear program. The move comes as part of an effort to pressure Iran into making concessions on its nuclear activities.
The E3, as the three European powers are known, told Iran on Thursday that the “snapback” mechanism had been triggered, and that Iran now had 30 days to negotiate a nuclear agreement. However, an Iranian official expressed skepticism about the move, describing it as “an action against diplomacy, not a chance for it.”
The demands made by the E3 are not easily met, according to experts. They want Iran to resume negotiations with the US over its nuclear program and allow international inspectors back in to monitor sites and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The US quit the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed its own sanctions on Iran.
Trita Parsi, Iran expert and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, believes that the E3’s demands risk accelerating another round of regional conflict. “If you restart talks at a moment when you know that talks will fail, then you ensure that military attacks will happen sooner rather than later,” Parsi said.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, stipulated that Iran must not enrich uranium above 3.67 percent, far below weaponization. In return, the parties agreed to lift debilitating UN sanctions.
However, when the US pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, Iran accused the US of violating the deal and the Europeans of “indirectly” violating it by not providing options for Iran to avoid US sanctions.
Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP), notes that some within Iran’s leadership believe the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) leaked sensitive information to the US.
“One position coming out of Tehran is that their cooperation with the IAEA over the years prepared the ground for the [US] attacks…because the US and Israel had very clear mapping and info of the programme,” Mortazavi said.
Iran is reportedly hiding some 400kg (880lb) of 60 percent enriched uranium, a level just below weapons-grade. Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWB), believes that Iran views the 60 percent stockpile as its last bargaining chip vis-a-vis Washington.
The E3’s demands have sparked concerns about the potential consequences of reimposing UN sanctions on Iran. If Iran doesn’t meet the E3’s demands, it will come under a conventional arms embargo, face restrictions on its ballistic missile development, and its top officials will have their assets frozen and travel bans issued for them.
Parsi argues that the E3’s threat of restoring UN sanctions is driven more by wanting to curry favor with the Trump administration than by any real concern for de-escalating tensions in the Middle East.
“Europeans want to get themselves on the same page with the US,” he said. “At the end of the day, what’s far more important to the Europeans is that they maintain good relations with the US, not work [to deescalate the situation] with Iran.”
The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation and conflict. As Azizi notes, “Israel has already demonstrated its willingness to use force again… If Iran were to resume enrichment at scale or show signs of moving toward weaponisation under the cover of opacity, the risk of another Israeli attack would rise sharply.”
In conclusion, the European powers’ decision to trigger the snapback mechanism has added pressure on Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program.
However, the demands made by the E3 are not easily met, and the potential consequences of reimposing UN sanctions on Iran are significant. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation and conflict.