The fragile peace in Ethiopia‘s Tigray region is under threat as tensions escalate between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government.
The conflict, which left 600,000 people dead and five million displaced, was supposed to have been ended by a ceasefire agreement in November 2022.
However, analysts warn that another devastating war could be looming, drawing in not just the TPLF but also Eritrea and potentially other regional players.
Abel Abate Demissie, an analyst at the Chatham House think tank, expressed concern about the situation, saying, “we are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray, and with Eritrea. It would be extremely devastating.” The Pretoria peace agreement, signed in November 2022, mandated the TPLF’s disarmament and the appointment of a new government.
However, a power struggle within the TPLF has hindered the implementation of the agreement, with the party’s leadership accusing the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, Getachew Reda, of being a sellout.
The situation is further complicated by Ethiopia’s strained relations with Eritrea, which have deteriorated since Abiy’s government agreed to peace with the TPLF.
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki reportedly felt sidelined in the peace process, and tensions have escalated over Abiy’s comments on Ethiopia’s need for access to a seaport.
Analysts warn that the situation could lead to war, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the region.
The Ethiopian government and the TPLF have traded insults and threats, with Abiy warning of the dangers of escalation.
Getachew, who has been expelled from the TPLF, has formed a new party, the Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party, which could potentially be installed in Tigray instead of the TPLF.
Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF continue to clash, and Eritrea is reportedly building up its defenses along the border with Ethiopia.
Analysts say that finding common ground will require significant effort from Abiy, as Eritrea is not strong on diplomacy, and the TPLF appears more confident with reported Eritrean backing.
The situation is dire, with Tigrayans fearing for their lives and scores fleeing the region. Another war, analysts warn, would be catastrophic for the region and its people.
As Abel Abate Demissie said, “Conflict only needs one side to go rogue. I really hope that sanity will prevail and all sides will apply wisdom.”